Midweek Bundesliga Best Bets: How to Bet Schalke vs. RB Leipzig, Freiburg vs. Frankfurt & More

Midweek Bundesliga Best Bets: How to Bet Schalke vs. RB Leipzig, Freiburg vs. Frankfurt & More article feature image

DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Mario Goetze.

The Bundesliga returned with plenty of exciting matches and goals last weekend. The German top flight hadn't had a league match since Nov. 13 because of the World Cup and ensuing winter break for the holidays.

RB Leipzig had an excellent performance and result at home against Bayern Munich, but now face a tricky road trip to Schalke on Tuesday.

Bayern will play their first home match since returning against Köln, who just scored seven goals in a 7-1 beatdown of Werder Bremen on Saturday. Bremen return home in a great bounce back spot against the over-performing Union Berlin, while Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt face off in a game with massive top four implications.

Here are my three best bets from a busy midweek Bundesliga slate.

Midweek Bundesliga Best Bets

Schalke 04 vs. RB Leipzig

Schalke Odds+480
Leipzig Odds-190
Over/Under2.5 (-152 / +124)
Day | TimeTuesday |  12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

There were plenty of misleading box scores when you look back through the weekend slate, and none were more misleading than Schalke's 3-0 away defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt. Frankfurt managed just three shots on target in the entire match and totaled 1.0 xG in the victory.

Schalke controlled the flow of the match, created a bunch of dangerous chances from open play and set pieces and produced more xG. Thomas Reis joined the club in October in an attempt to save them from relegation and he has clearly improved the side.

They had more attacking penalty area touches than Frankfurt and completed more passes and crosses into the box. Schalke were done in on two late counters to lose 3-0, but could have easily won if variance had swung their way.

Schalke are sitting at the foot of the table, but they've outplayed Mainz, Werder Bremen and Frankfurt in three of the last four matches. The attack is just 17th in xG for the season, second-worst in the league. But that same attack has totaled 5.5 xG in the last four games under Reis, all against mid-table or better teams.

Even though Schalke lost to Bayern 2-0, holding them under2 xG is also an achievement. Leipzig have a negative xG difference away from home in the league too, and this spread is just too big against an improved Schalke.

Dabbundo's Pick: Schalke +1 (-110)

Freiburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt

Freiburg Odds+150
Frankfurt Odds+170
Over/Under2.5 (-138 / +114)
Day | TimeWednesday |  2:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

It's good practice when betting any sport — soccer especially — to not overreact to any one game or result. Freiburg lost 6-0 to Wolfsburg on the road on Saturday and it's natural for the market and consensus on them to change because of one game.

In the end, it is just one game. Frankfurt won 3-0, but as mentioned in the previous game, they were outplayed in the match at home against one of the worst teams in the Bundesliga.

Freiburg have the same number of expected points this season as Frankfurt. Eintracht's underlying numbers have improved this season compared to last, but it's built on a couple of weird outliers at home against RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen. There's no reason to think this time is genuinely playing better when you consider that they are an average team when you take out their positive and negative outlier games.

Freiburg are the much better defense and they're excellent at not conceding big scoring chances. There's not much volume shooting in this Frankfurt team and they rely on ball carrying in transition to produce attack.

I expect a cagey affair here given the stakes, but the market should have Freiburg as a bigger favorite at home when these two teams are pretty comparable in true talent and performances this season.

Dabbundo's PickFreiburg PK (-120 or better)

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Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin

Bremen Odds+180
Union Odds+155
Over/Under2.5 (+106 / -128)
Day | TimeWednesday |  2:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Much like Freiburg, Werder Bremen were destroyed on the road last weekend. Bremen conceded seven goals against a Köln buzzsaw in a 7-1 defeat. And much like Freiburg, I'm backing Werder Bremen to return home and bounce back on Wednesday at home against an over-performing Union Berlin side.

Union sit in the third position with the worst attack in the Bundesliga by non-penalty xG per match. Only Bayern Munich have outperformed their xG more than Union and no team has been awarded more penalties this season.

When you consider how little time they spend in the opposition penalty area — fifth-fewest touches in the league — it's remarkable that they've gotten so many penalties. Opponents have also had three reds against them this season. That's another example of good fortune helping this average Bundesliga side up to third in the league.

Union Berlin rely on crosses for almost all of their goals and despite the mediocre underlying numbers, Bremen's defense is third in crosses allowed into the box and defends set pieces really well.

Union don't really press their opponents and might be able to catch Bremen out in transition if they overcommit in the search for high turnovers. Bremen are fourth in high turnovers, however, and this is a prime spot for them coming home after a blowout defeat.

Take the home side that is being underpriced.

Dabbundo's Pick: Werder Bremen PK (-115 or better)

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