MLS Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Portland Timbers (Wednesday, Oct. 7)

Credit:

Lyndsay Radnedge/ISI Photos for Getty Images. Pictured: Portland Timbers star Diego Valeri.

  • The Los Angeles Galaxy hosts the Portland Timbers to highlight Wednesday's massive Major League Soccer card.
  • Jeremy Pond delivers his top plays for the match and some bonus picks below.

LA Galaxy vs. Portland Odds

LA Galaxy Odds +110 [BET NOW]
Portland Odds +215 [BET NOW]
Draw +270 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3.5 (+128/-175) [BET NOW]
Time 10:30 p.m. ET
TV MLS Live on ESPN+

Odds updated as of Wednesday at 4 p.m. and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


If Major League Soccer is your jam, Wednesday is going to feel like a holiday.

There are 12 matches on the loaded slate, highlighted by the Western Conference showdown pitting the Los Angeles Galaxy against Portland.

Los Angeles has been anything but in form as of late, losing its last three fixtures and finds itself winless in four consecutive matches. The Galaxy suffered a 2-1 defeat against San Jose in the latest edition of the Cali Clasico.

On the other side, Portland is playing like it did this summer in Florida when it captured the MLS is Back tournament at 28-1 odds. The Timbers are in second place in the conference standings, sitting just three points behind defending MLS Cup champion Seattle.

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Looking at the data and numbers coming into this tilt, Los Angeles has been consistently mediocre. The Galaxy sits on 13.5 expected goals and a subpar 14.7 expected goals against for a -1.2 xGDiff number, along with a -0.11 xGDiff/90 minutes.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


What is hard to fathom is the fact Portland, which is nine points and 10 spots clear of Los Angeles in the standings, is even worse across all metrics. The Timbers have a solid 14.6 xGF on the season, but it all goes south from there.

The Timbers boast a brutal 18.5 xGA for a dismal -3.9 xGDiff and -0.35 xGDiff/90, putting the visitors at disadvantage on paper entering the match.

That all said, I think this match is primed to go under the number. These midweek matches tend to be stale and I don’t see a whole lot of offense being generated, particularly on the Galaxy side of things.

I am also backing Portland getting a half goal at a nice price. The Timbers have been solid as of late and it wouldn’t surprise me if they won this match outright.

The Bets: Portland +0.5 (-132); Total Under 3.5 Goals (-175)

BONUS PLAYS

  • Philadelphia ML (-162) over FC Cincinnati: My top play on the early part of the card. The Union had to be disappointed after its 2-1 road loss against Toronto FC in its most recent outing. Philadelphia knows it missed a golden opportunity in the battle for Eastern Conference supremacy, which has me believing it will be firing on all cylinders.
  • Seattle ML (-182) over Real Salt Lake: The Sounders are three points clear of Portland atop the conference standings, so a win here would keep that same distance between the clubs even if the Timbers take out the Galaxy.
  • San Jose-Vancouver: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-180): These clubs played an absolute banger of a match back in July at the MLS is Back tournament, where the Earthquakes rallied from a 3-1 deficit to secure a shocking 4-3 win via a stoppage-time goal. There have been 12 goals combined in the last three meetings between these sides, so I expect fireworks in this latest tussle.

[Bet on the match at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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