MLS Cup Predictions | Cincinnati vs Columbus, LAFC vs Houston Previews
Jeff Dean/Getty. Pictured: Cincy FC.
On Saturday night, we'll learn who will play for the 2023 MLS Cup next weekend when teams contest the Eastern Conference and Western Conference finals.
First, the 2023 Supporters' Shield winners FC Cincinnati will host their "Hell is Real" derby rivals Columbus Crew. Then, defending MLS Cup champions LAFC host 2023 U.S. Open Cup winners Houston Dynamo.
Let's get right to the picks.
MLS Cup Predictions
| Cincinnati Odds | +125 |
| Columbus Odds | +230 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
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There were only five goals scored in the conference semifinal round, which has driven the price on the total here lower than I think it should be.
The most likely reason for those low-scoring games was the extended break all eight teams were forced to wait through following their respective Round One series — especially teams that swept those series in two games.
Because of the timing of the November international window, the five teams that swept their series were all forced to go 17 days or more between competitive matches. And the three that had to win a decisive Match 3 all had breaks of 16 days or fewer.
The first group created an average of 0.7 xG in their first 90 minutes of play — which is how total-goal wagers are graded. The second group created a much more respectable average of 1.3 xG over 90 minutes.
Additionally, in the modern era of single-elimination conference finals — i.e. since the start of 2019 — there is no history suggesting single-elimination playoff games skew lower scoring than regular season fixtures. In fact, there have been three or more goals scored on six of eight conference finals in that span.
That doesn't mean you should be blindly betting overs. But you should do so where it makes sense otherwise, and that certainly applies to this fixture and most games the Crew play on the road. Columbus led all MLS teams with 26 away goals scored and tied all playoff qualifiers for the worst away defensive record with 32 goals conceded.
Additionally, there have been an average of 2.8 total xG created in games when Cincy is the host or Columbus is the visitor. And the over has cashed in 24 of 38 games — including playoffs — when Cincy is home or Columbus is away.
That's a rate of 63.2% — underlining the value on a wager at -120 odds and an implied 54.5% probability. And that doesn't even account for the confirmed and potential absences in Cincy's defense, with MLS Defender of the Year Matt Miazga serving a suspension and defensive midfielder Obinna Nwobodo having missed the conference semifinals with a hamstring issue.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-120 via Caesars)
| LAFC Odds | -167 |
| Houston Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -106 / -118 |
The Dynamo are the only team to win two or more regular season meetings against LAFC this season, but it's hard to take much from their season series, played entirely within five days in mid-June.
Ben Olsen's group was clearly up for both games. But LAFC was only a week removed from the end of a grueling run to the CONCACAF Champions League final, and perhaps hungover after seeing that shot at continental honors fall short against Liga MX's Club Leon.
The Black-and-Gold are clearly in a much better moment now, having won five of their last six. In my view, the moneyline is about right. If you forced me to play a money-line bet, it would probably be the draw.
The total goals market probably doesn't provide much value either, with LAFC struggling to run up the score as often as they did last season when facing quality opponents. In home games against playoff qualifiers, the over has cashed on six of 11 occasions, but that drops to four times out of nine when eliminating matches against the wide-open Whitecaps.
But the trend worth backing might be LAFC's inability to keep clean sheets at home, where they play a far more open brand of football. They've only done so three times in 11 games against playoff opponents this season, and in all three of those games, said opponents were nursing injuries to key attacking contributors.
Combine that with a healthy Houston side that has proven itself consistent — but not quite explosive — going forward on the road, and I think the smartest money here is on the Dynamo to score exactly one goal.
At +155 odds and an implied 39.2% probability, it's a bet that has cashed in 12 of 23 games against playoff opponents between LAFC's home schedule and the Dynamo's travels.
Pick: Houston to score 1 goal exact (+155 via ESPNBet)
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