LAFC vs. Seattle Sounders MLS Odds, Pick, Prediction, Betting Preview (Oct. 26)

LAFC vs. Seattle Sounders MLS Odds, Pick, Prediction, Betting Preview (Oct. 26) article feature image

Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Seattle Sounder star Raúl Ruidíaz, right, celebrates a goal with his teammates.

LAFC vs. Seattle Odds

LAFC Odds-110
Seattle Odds+310
Over/Under2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | TimeTuesday | 10:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Los Angeles Football Club looks to continue their late-season push for the playoffs when they host the Western Conference-leading Seattle Sounders on Tuesday night.

Despite going unbeaten in their last four, LAFC remained three points off the playoff pace in the West after their 1-1 draw at Minnesota United on Saturday.

The Sounders are still trying to clinch the top spot in the West and saw their lead shrink to three points after a 2-1 home loss to second-place Sporting Kansas City.

This is these teams’ third meeting, but it is the first since May 15, when the Sounders won 2-0 at home. They drew 1-1 in Los Angeles back in April.

Will LAFC Offensive Surge Continue?

After winning the 2019 MLS MVP Award, Carlos Vela has battled injury for most of the last two seasons.

The influential Mexican is available for the first time in two months on Tuesday with his team’s playoff hopes hanging in the balance.

However, it’s almost impossible that he’ll start after missing so much time with a knee injury. He returns to a team that is fundamentally different than in his last involvement, with the departure of Diego Rossi to Turkey and the rise of Colombian striker Cristian Arango.

For all that has gone poorly for LAFC, Arango’s signing is the opposite, with the 26-year-old proving a virtual lock for the MLS Newcomer of the Year award.

He’s arguably the hottest player in the league, scoring 12 goals in 14 appearances since his summer signing to take the team scoring lead, including a dizzying six goals in the last three games.

His addition seems to have solved the Black-and-Gold’s problem of not performing up to their expected goals (xG) projections. 

Yes, LAFC still have an xG difference of +20.5, and an actual goal difference of +2.

But there is virtually no discrepancy between the two figures in Arango’s string of 11 consecutive starts. Over that span, LAFC have a xGD difference of +5.6, and a +5 goal difference.

Seattle Trying to Survive Without Ruidiaz

While the Sounders have dealt with their own injury issues, including the persistent absences of Jordan Morris (torn ACL recovery) and Nicolas Lodeiro (multiple leg injuries), they’ve possessed the efficiency in creating chances that LAFC has lacked.

But losing Raul Ruidiaz to a knock picked up on international duty may have been the final straw for the short term.

The Peruvian international is a major reason why the Sounders are exceeding their +10.0 xG difference by 13 goals. 

Although he has 16 on his own, it’s not so much that he himself finishes far more chances than xG would predict.

It’s more that he is exceptionally comfortable playing a counterattacking style that is a little unusual for a team so high in the table. That approach can lead to chances on the break — with few defenders close — that xG projections can sometimes undervalue.

Without him, the Sounders could manage only a draw in a three-game stretch where xG projections said they out-created opponents twice and played to a dead heat in the third.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Even in their best form, LAFC has rarely been a shut-down defensive team. That includes at home, where they have kept only three clean sheets in 15 attempts.

And even without Ruidiaz, the Sounders have proven capable of an offensive outburst. Their four goals against Vancouver back on October 9 came while the international break was ongoing.

That has me playing the Sounders team total above 1.5 goals at +170 odds and an implied 37% probability.

Between 15 Sounders away matches and 15 LAFC home games, the away goals total has gone above 1.5 on 13 occasions, or 43% of those matches.

In the case of LAFC, most of those have come recently since the injury of center back Eddie Segura.

Intuitively, this also feels like a place where playing the straight draw (+280) has value. I just can’t make as strong a logical case for it.

Pick: Seattle — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+170)

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