Arsenal vs. Newcastle United Monday EPL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Can Gunners Keep Another Clean Sheet?
Sebastian Frej/MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
- Premier League clubs moving in opposite directions meet for the second time in just over a week when Arsenal welcomes Newcastle United back to Emirates Stadium on Monday.
- Can the Gunners secure their fifth consecutive clean sheet in this fixture?
- Jeremy Pond previews Monday's match and shares his betting picks below.
Arsenal vs. Newcastle Odds
|Arsenal Odds||-245 [BET NOW]|
|Newcastle Odds||+700 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+360 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-127/+102) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Monday | 3 p.m. ET|
Clubs going in completely opposite directions do battle for the second time in just over a week when Arsenal welcomes Newcastle United back to Emirates Stadium on Monday for an important Premier League match.
These sides tussled on January 9 in the third round of the FA Cup, with the Gunners coming earning a 2-0 shutout win over the Magpies.
Arsenal has been one of the most consistent performers in England’s top flight as of late, notching four consecutive shutouts on the bounce. The Gunners are unbeaten in their last five contests across all competitions, with a scoreless draw against Crystal Palace last time out as their lone “blemish.”
In contrast, Newcastle United picked up the unwanted label of being the first side to lose to previously winless Sheffield United in a 1-0 midweek road defeat at Bramall Lane. The Magpies sit in 15th place on just 19 points.
Let’s take a look at these combatants and see what could be on deck.
Life has been going pretty well for manager Mikel Arteta and his lads. The Gunners have crept their way into 11th place, now just two points shy of cracking the top 10 in the standings.
After a rough start to the campaign, Arsenal has finally found its from and secured 10 out of a possible 12 points in its last four league fixtures. Wins over Chelsea, Brighton & Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion preceded the Crystal Palace tie, so this is an outfit to watch on the rest of the campaign.
Captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who scored in that FA Cup victory two games back, and Alexandre Lacazette continue to lead the Gunners’ line.
Looking over Arsenal’s overall statistics show the Gunners continue to be utterly flat. They sit on 22.8 expected goals and 21.6 expected goals against, resulting in a +1.2 xGDiff and +0.06 xGDiff/90 minutes.
As I mentioned the last time I broke down an Arsenal match, these kind of figures embody an outfit destined to wind up middle of the table at season’s end if nothing changes.
Things continue to be miserable on Tyneside for the Magpies, who continue their ongoing slide down the table.
Newcastle is winless in its last eight matches across all competitions, which includes six defeats. The Magpies’ last victory came more than a month ago via their 2-1 win over relegation-zone occupant West Bromwich Albion.
Making matters even worse is the fact gaffer Steve Bruce’s side has been absolutely miserable on the offensive side of things, with Newcastle having been shut out in five of its last six games overall.
When comparing advanced metrics with Arsenal, Newcastle finds itself behind its opposition in all four highlighted categories. The Magpies have racked up a lowly 15.5 expected goals and even uglier 23.4 expected goals against, resulting in a poor -7.9 xGDiff and -0.46 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
As you probably guessed, Newcastle is one of the worst clubs in these metrics in the 20-team league. Its xGDiff is 17th overall and must improve if it’s going to avoid becoming part of the relegation scrap.
Betting Analysis & Picks
This is another one of those tilts where you shouldn’t overthink the obvious. Arsenal is facing a Newcastle side again whose form has been downright awful, which is something I don’t see getting improving in this fixture.
That said, I am backing the Gunners to get the job done and bag all three points at the Emirates. Despite that lackluster draw against Crystal Palace, Arsenal has been playing like a top-eight team and I see that continuing here.
I will also sprinkle a little on the total staying under the alternative number of 2.75 goals. Arsenal has recorded four consecutive shutouts, which is the biggest reason leading me to this wager.
Ideally, I would have jumped on the total at three goals, but the inflated odds sitting at -174 on DraftKings aren’t my cup of tea. If the total under three goals drops to around -165 at any point, I will jump on that number, as well.
Picks: Arsenal -1 (-150) | Total Under 2.75 Goals (-124)