New England Revolution vs. LA Galaxy Betting Preview: Updated MLS Odds, Picks, Prediction

New England Revolution vs. LA Galaxy Betting Preview: Updated MLS Odds, Picks, Prediction article feature image

Andrew Katsampes/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: New England Revolution star Carles Gil, right, celebrates a goal with his teammates.

New England vs. LA Galaxy Odds

New England Odds+105
LA Galaxy Odds+220
Over/Under2.5 (-185 / +125)
Day | TimeSunday | 8 p.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds updated as of Sunday afternoon via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Bruce Arena faces his old club when New England hosts the Los Angeles Galaxy at Gillette Stadium in Sunday's Major League Soccer showdown.

The Revolution and Galaxy entered Saturday a spot outside the seven MLS Cup playoff positions in their respective conferences.

New England is coming off its worst lost of the season — a 4-0 road rout against Montreal — while Los Angeles enters this game off a disappointing 3-3 home draw to Seattle.

These teams met in three MLS Cup finals between 2002 and 2014, with the Galaxy winning them all. However, they haven't played a regular-season game since June of 2019 that ended in a 2-1 New England win in Southern California.

New England Revolution

The Revolution have only lost three times in their last 18 games and only once in their last six outings. The latter number is particularly impressive given how short-handed Arena's side has been.

Striker Gustavo Bou and winger Dylan Borrero have missed all six of those games with injuries. They're officially listed as questionable here, but that's unchanged from previous weeks.

Striker Giacomo Vrioni also has missed of those matches, with health issues prolonging his assimilation in MLS after signing from Serie A power Juventus.

That leaves 2021 MLS MVP Carles Gil as the only member of Arena's preferred front four likely to start. The Spaniard has a goal and two assists in the last five games.

By The Numbers

  • 50% — How often the Revolutions score exactly two goals at home.
  • 5-2-5 — New England's home record (W-L-D) this season.
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LA Galaxy

Los Angeles' problems are on the other end of the pitch. Manager Greg Vanney pledged to solve the Galaxy's defensive woes from a season before, which began well with five clean sheets kept in their first 10 matches.

But it's all fallen apart of late, with Vanney's men conceding multiple goals in seven of their last 10 fixtures. The signing of Gaston Brugman as a holding midfielder doesn't appear to have made a major difference yet, perhaps because Rayan Raveloson moved on to Ligue 1 side Auxerre this summer.

Up front, the Galaxy are a rare MLS team that already has double-digit scorers. Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez scored his team-leading 11th goal and Dejan Joveljic added his 10th in last week's draw against Seattle.

Even so, Los Angeles has lost its last four games away from home.

By The Numbers

  • 2.5 — Average goals conceded per 90 minutes in last four away matches.
  • 1.13 — Joveljic's goals per 90 minutes this season.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

The Revolution haven't scored more than two goals at home this season and are depleted up front. The Galaxy have rarely kept clean sheets on the road of late, having often conceded more than twice.

That leads me to a relatively aggressive wager of +240 at New England to score exactly twice, backing an implied 29.4% probability.

The Revolution have scored exactly two goals in half their home games. The Galaxy have allowed exactly two goals only twice, instead capitulating three or more in several cases. Yet with their injuries, New England is less likely to pile on than other Los Angeles foes.

And combining Revolution home and Galaxy wager games, it has hit 30.4% of the time. I'm OK with that, given the host's trends are far more consistent.

Trends over the whole season also suggest value on a low total. However, the xG data and both these teams' tactical approach gives me pause there.

The Pick: New England — To Score 2 Goals Exact (+240)

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