Newcastle vs Brighton Odds, Pick, Prediction: Thursday Premier League Bets

Newcastle vs Brighton Odds, Pick, Prediction: Thursday Premier League Bets article feature image

NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Alexis Mac Allister and Roberto De Zerbi.

Newcastle vs Brighton Odds

Thurs, May 17
2:30 p.m. ET
USA Network

Newcastle Odds


Brighton Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-188 / +150)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-200 / +150)
Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.

After an embarrassing 5-1 defeat against Everton, Brighton clobbered Arsenal with an impressive 3-0 victory. Now, Brighton find themselves in an interesting spot. They’re in sixth place with nothing to lose and everything to gain.

With two extra games to play, the Seagulls are a hefty seven points behind Liverpool in fifth. They won’t worry about Tottenham or Aston Villa catching up to them in sixth place, which doesn’t secure a spot in either top UEFA competition next year, and instead will be taking risks and playing only to grab three points. After they took down the Gunners, they’ll be hopeful they can continue to get the job done in their final matches.

Newcastle, on the other hand, need three points to protect their spot in the top 4, which provides them a ticket to compete in the Champions League next season. Even though Newcastle rank third, their top four status sits a bit precariously as the odds imply they have a 27.03% chance of not qualifying for the Champions League.

Newcastle in High Pressure Situation

With teams nipping at their heels, Newcastle need points to seal their spot in the 23/24 Champions League. It’s pretty simple for the Magpies: if they secure two wins in their final three matches, they will guarantee themselves a spot in the top four. After this game, they face Leicester at home and Chelsea in London to finish the season.

I expect Newcastle to play direct against Brighton. They’ll be playing to grab three points and will want to capitalize on having home field advantage in one of their final two matches at St. James’ Park. They’ve been strong at St. James’ Park all season and recently have won four of their last five at home. Also, after falling short 2-0 to Arsenal and drawing Leeds, they'll want to win to regain momentum following the two disappointing results.

After starting the last two matches on the bench following a hamstring injury, key attacker Allan Saint-Maximin could make an appearance in the starting 11 against Brighton.

Brighton Also Vying for European Spot

Brighton will certainly play directly in this match. For the Seagulls, a win means one step closer to a top-five finish and a loss doesn’t mean much at all. Roberto De Zerbi’s side will need to take attacking risks and get numbers forward against Newcastle. Coming away from this match with one or zero points will almost certainly squash their chances to compete in the Europa or Champions League next year.

The Seagulls are most directly competing with Liverpool for a spot in the Europa League. The Reds finish the season against Villa and Southampton– we can expect Liverpool to come away with at least three points with a win over Southampton. If Liverpool only win one match, that means that in order for Brighton to secure a top five spot they will need to either secure 10 points and gain seven in goal differential over Liverpool or win all of their last four games.

In the end, the bottom line is that Brighton will be massively desperate to secure a result.

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Newcastle vs Brighton Pick

I love the over at -154. There have been over 2.5 goals scored in seven of Newcastle's last eight Premier League games and six of Brighton's last seven Premier League games.

The context for this game suggests that it's going to be wide-open and fast-paced, providing both sides opportunities to put the ball in the back of the net. As both teams are strong goal scoring sides I expect them to capitalize on their chances. Newcastle rank sixth in goals scored per match (1.8) while Brighton rank 4th, averaging 1.9 per match. The Seagulls are also first in shots on target per match (6.2).

Recent matches for both squads have shown an exceptional amount of goal scoring. There have been 20 goals scored in Brighton’s last five matches and 22 in Newcastle’s last five. I don’t feel comfortable betting over 3.5 at the current market price, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see four-plus goals in this match.

At time of publish, the line for over 2.5 was -154. Hope you got that number locked in, because it's up to -186 as of Thursday at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Pick: Over 2.5 (FanDuel)

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