Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction
Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Crystal Palace standout Wilfried Zaha.
Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+275|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-105 / -135)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Newcastle United looks to overcome the heartbreak of losing in the 97th minute at Anfield this past Wednesday when it hosts Crystal Palace at St. James’ Park on Saturday in this Premier League showdown.
It has been an up-and-down season for the Magpies so far. They have six points through their first five matches, with the loss against the Reds being their first of the season. So, this is a good opportunity to get three points against a fellow mid-table side.
On the other side, Crystal Palace has played one of the most difficult schedules to open the EPL season. The Eagles have had to play Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, but fought well picking up five points in their first five games. Their road form last season in the English top flight was bad, so this is a great opportunity to change that track record.
Newcastle is going through a bit of an injury crisis right now. Bruno Guimares, Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson are still sidelined, which is massive because even though Aleksander Isak is finally in the lineup, who’s going to supply him the ball?
Through five matches, Newcastle has a +0.3 xGDiff, which isn’t bad. However, if you remove the matches against Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton, the club actually sits with a -2.4 xGDiff in its other three outings.
One thing that has plagued Newcastle for a long time is it’s terrible at playing through pressure. Since the January transfer window of last season, Newcastle’s Offensive PPDA is at 7.5, which is the worst mark in the league.
By The Numbers
- 7.5 — Newcastle’s Offensive PPDA since January 2021, which is dead last in the Premier League.
- 1.3 — Total xG created by the Magpies in the two meetings against Crystal Palace last season.
Crystal Palace has played well through a difficult schedule, but it has been far too conservative when playing with a lead.
The match against Brentford was a perfect example because when Palace was leading on xG by a 0.6-0.49 margin in the 59th minute of the contest. However, the game ended with Brentford winning the xG battle by a wide 1.83-0.78 advantage. Standout Wilfried Zaha wasn’t too happy about it either.
Wilfried Zaha is every single Palace fan. I love the lad so much. pic.twitter.com/IRK9JSiDPR
— HLTCO (@HLTCO) August 30, 2022
Now with that being said, this is a good matchup for Crystal Palace. The Eagles pressed at the fourth highest rate in the Premier League last season, and in ots meeting with Newcastle back in April, manager Patrick Vieira’s side put up a PPDA of 5.8 in the process.
And let’s not forget this Crystal Palace team was the best defense outside of the Big Six clubs. The Eagles finished the season fourth in NPxG allowed, fourth in shots created per 90 minutes and third in big scoring chances yielded.
By The Numbers
- 1.00 — Total NPxG allowed per match by Crystal Palace last season, which was fourth-best mark in the Premier League.
- 26— Number of big scoring chances conceded by the Eagles last campaign, which ranked third overall in the league.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This line is a tad too high for Newcastle team missing three of its most important players.
The schedule has been brutal for Crystal Palace, but this is still one of the best defensive sides in the league going up against a Newcastle outfit that has only averaged 1.27 xG per 90 minutes since the January transfer window of last season.
I only have Newcastle projected as a +127 moneyline favorite at home, so I like the value on Crystal Palace getting +0.5 goals at -120 odds via the Asian Handicap and will make it my top pick.
The Pick: Crystal Palace +0.5 (-120)