Newcastle vs Man United Prediction | Premier League Match Preview
Xavier Laine/Getty. Pictured: Aleksandar Isak.
Newcastle vs Man United Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -110 |
| Man United Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Newcastle will be hosting the mighty Manchester United this weekend at St. James Park in a match that will likely have huge implications in the race for top four this season. Both sides are coming off emotional matches in the Champions League this past week and will be looking to pick up points in this match.
The Magpies are coming off a heartbreaking 1-1 draw against PSG this past Tuesday in a match where they led held the lead for the majority of the 90 minutes. It was not a particularly pretty match to watch from Newcastle’s perspective, but the fact that Eddie Howe has continued their good form is very impressive.
Manchester United’s Champions League dreams took a big hit in their 3-3 draw this week away at Galatasaray. Despite all the criticism of United’s season, they currently sit 6th in the Premier League, one spot and one point ahead of Newcastle. Say what you want about Ten Hag, but he has gotten results even when they have not been at their best.
Let’s get into this Premier League heavyweight matchup and see how I think Newcastle vs Manchester United will play out and how to bet it.
Newcastle
Eddie Howe has been one of the unluckiest managers this season regarding injuries. So far this season, Newcastle have been without Callum Wilson, Dan Burn, Elliot Anderson, Harvey Barnes, Jacob Murphy, Joe Willock, Sean Longstaff, Sven Botman and Sandro Tonali. Those players alone could put together a Premier League side that could content for the top six, and they have been without some of them for significant time.
Despite the injury crisis at this club, they still sit seventh in the league and have scored the second-most goals in the league with 31. Not only has their recruitment been fantastic, but Eddie Howe has implemented a system that proves consistent no matter what players he puts there. Look at their last league match against Chelsea. Livramento, Miley and Lascelles were in the starting 11 and all played up to the standard of a Champions League side.
Newcastle have also made St. James Park a fortress over the past couple of seasons. This year they have played seven matches at home, winning six of them and only conceding four goals in the process. One of the reasons they have been so good this season is because of how efficient they have been in front of goal. They are over-performing their xG tally by 5.5 this season and by almost three goals just at St. James Park. This is likely not sustainable over the duration of an entire season, but when you create as many chances as Newcastle do, they will obviously score more goals.
Man United
Manchester United have been one of the most controversial sides this year for obvious reasons. They are one of, if not the biggest club in the world, and have seen very little success since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson. Ten Hag has gotten results so far in his time as United manager, but there is no identity to this side and how they want to play.
If you look at some of the underlying metrics, United should be nowhere near sixth in the league. They have played more like a mid-table side than a top six side all season. Their xG is lower than Everton’s and they have conceded a higher xG than Forest, Brighton and Everton. They have under-performed in front of goal by quite a bit, having only scored 16 goals this season, but they have over-performed massively defensively.
They have conceded just 16 goals this season, the fifth-lowest in the league, but have given up 5.2 less goals than their xG tally. This is the highest over-performance in the league by far and André Onana’s overall numbers this season have gone under the radar. He has saved 3.4 goals up to this point and this has not been on most people’s radar because as goalkeeper of Manchester United, the mistakes will always be amplified.
Their defensive woes go much further than Onana or even the defensive line as a whole. It is more down to how Ten Hag sets them up. This was exemplified in their match against Everton, where the forward line would press high, but the back line stays sitting back in their own area. This leads to loads of space for opponents on the counter and a team with the speed of Newcastle will be licking their lips at the transition opportunities that will come.
Newcastle vs Man United
Prediction
There is no debate that Newcastle are the better side in this match. Even with all the players that will be unavailable for this match, I will be backing Newcastle to win this one at St. James Park.
Howe has proven that he is a better tactician than Ten Hag and he has the personnel at his disposal to play the exact way he wants to. To get Newcastle at even money feels far too low as I have them at closer to -150.
I will most definitely be taking Newcastle at -110 via DraftKings.
Pick: Newcastle ML (-110 via DraftKings)
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