Poland vs. Slovakia Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Take the Favorite Against Struggling Slovaks (June 14)

Poland vs. Slovakia Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Take the Favorite Against Struggling Slovaks (June 14) article feature image

Foto Olimpik/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Lewandowski.

  • Poland and Slovakia meet Monday in St. Petersburg for their opening match of Euro 2020 (12 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • Poland is home to one of the top goalscorers in the world in Robert Lewandowski, while Slovakia enters the tournament with little momentum or chance to advance from group play.
  • See how Matt Trebby is betting a Poland vs. Slovakia match that is likely to see a goal from the superstar.

Poland vs. Slovakia Odds

Poland Odds-120
Slovakia Odds+400
Over/Under2.5 (+130 / -175)
Day | TimeMonday | 12 p.m. ET
Odds as of Sunday afternoon via BetMGM.

For those of you who are new to the international game, Poland probably wouldn't stand out as a country that would have a global superstar.

But that they do. Coming off a record-breaking season for Bayern Munich, Robert Lewandowski will lead Poland at Euro 2020, starting with a matchup against Slovakia.

Let's dig in and see where the betting value lies.

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Polish Will Go as Lewandowski Goes

There’s one name that should jump out at you on Poland’s roster.
For me, Lewandowski is the best goalscorer in the world. He has scored at least 20 goals in the Bundesliga nine times in the past 10 seasons for either Borussia Dortmund or Bayern Munich, including a 41-goal tally in domestic play last season.

The Polish midfield has three proven players in Grzegorz Krychowiak, Mateusz Klich and Piotr Zielinski. Klich and Zielinski are used to playing an attacking game for Leeds United and Napoli, while Krychowiak is an experienced defensive-minded midfielder who will come in handy against teams like Spain.

Poland qualified for this tournament by going 8-1-1 against a group that they should have handled comfortably, although they scored just 18 goals in those 10 games. That came under former manager Jerzy Brzeczek, though, who was fired in January. Expect a more attack-minded team with Sousa in charge since that’s what he was brought in to implement.

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Underwhelming Slovakia Enters With Little Momentum

Between Slovakia’s attack and midfield, Marek Hamsik is the name that is likely to stand out most, unless you’re a Minnesota United fan who is excited to see Jan Gregus.

Hamsik is 33 years old, though, and played his club soccer for Goteborg in Sweden this past season. He moved there from Chinese club Dalian Professional because he became a free agent in March and the Swedish league was one of few with its transfer windows still open. Less than ideal.

Center back Milan Skriniar is coming off a Serie A-winning season with Inter Milan and should be in fine form, but he cannot defend by himself. Newcastle’s Martin Dubravka will have to be a superhero for most of this tournament if the Slovakians have much of a chance.

Slovakia finished behind Croatia and Wales in Euro 2020 qualifying, winning four of their eight group games. They did register a relatively solid 1.59 expected goals per game.

When international play resurfaced last September, the Slovakians came back by failing to win their first five matches against extremely unimpressive opposition. They beat Northern Ireland and Scotland in November before winning one of their final six games entering this tournament.

In their two friendlies to prepare for this tournament against Bulgaria and Austria, Slovakia looked extremely unimpressive with a 1-1 tie against the Bulgarians and in a 0-0 affair against Austria.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Slovakia’s only hope is that Poland struggles to break down what will likely be a defensive wall behind the ball. The likes of Zielinski and Klich will have to struggle finding Lewandowski, or the Polish wingbacks, if Slovakia has any chance.

I don’t see that happening. The Poles are going to be on the front foot, and it won’t take much of a chance for them to score with either striker on the field.
Poland is favored here, but it’s not enough for me to be deterred. I’ll back the Polish up to -135 here.

Pick: Poland (-120)

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