English Premier League Odds & Picks: How to Bet Aston Villa vs. West Ham United (Wednesday, Feb. 3)

English Premier League Odds & Picks: How to Bet Aston Villa vs. West Ham United (Wednesday, Feb. 3) article feature image
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Clive Brunskill/Getty Images. Pictured: Aston Villa standout Ollie Watkins jumps on the back of teammate Jack Grealish.

  • Premier League clubs with Europa League aspirations -- or maybe even better -- will battle Wednesday when Aston Villa hosts West Ham United.
  • Can the Villans get past the fifth-place Hammers?
  • Jeremy Pond thinks so and explains why below.

Aston Villa vs. West Ham Odds

Aston Villa Odds +133
West Ham Odds +210
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (-124/+100) 
Day | Time Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET
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Clubs with Europa League aspirations or maybe even better battle Wednesday when Aston Villa hosts West Ham United in a key Premier League showdown.

These combatants sit in the top 10 on the table, with the host Villans in eighth place on 32 points in England’s top flight. Aston Villa enters this match fresh off a 1-0 shutout road win over Southampton last time out.

On the other side, the Hammers are positioned in a surprising fifth place in the standings. However, the Villans are one of four teams breathing down their necks in the race for next season’s intracontinental tournaments.

Chelsea, Everton and Tottenham Hotspur are just two points behind West Ham, which suffered a 3-1 loss to defending league champion Liverpool.

It goes without saying this a huge fixture for these top-10 teams, so let’s see what might be on deck in this contest.

Aston Villa

Manager Dean Smith had to be pleased with his side’s huge road victory at St Mary’s Stadium, largely due to the fact it was just its second win in its last six games across all competitions.

Ross Barkley scored the game’s lone goal late in the opening half, and the Villans held on for the clean sheet despite the Saints holding a 1.7-0.5 xGF advantage in the match.

Ollie Watkins and captain Jack Grealish have been the one-two punch on Aston Villa attack, combining for 14 goals and 11 assists this season.

Looking at the Villans’ advanced metrics, you can see they’re right where they should be in the standings. Aston Villa sits on a stellar 32.4 expected goals and 24.5 expected goals against, resulting in an impressive +7.9 xGDiff and +0.42 xGDiff/90 minutes.

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West Ham

All is clearly not lost following the Hammers’ defeat against Liverpool. In fact, when you take everything into account, things have been going awfully well for the London-based outfit.

Prior to the setback at Anfield, David Moyes’ side was unbeaten in eight matches across all competitions, including six on the bounce. The Hammers got things at both ends of the pitch, highlighted by five shutouts during that stretch of play.

Now, West Ham must put that setback behind it and deal with the task at hand. Any kind of positive result, preferably one that delivers three points and a win, is a must at this point in the campaign.

When comparing advanced metrics with Aston Villa, West Ham’s numbers are not what you’d expect from a top-five club in my opinion. The figures look more middle-of-the-table than anything else.

The Hammers have a decent 28.6 expected goals and 24.7 expected goals, generating a respectable +3.9 xGDiff and +0.19 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

This was quite a difficult match to handicap, which you probably gathered after perusing everything above. Trying to find an advantage one of these sides might have over the other was like looking for a needle in a haystack.

However, there’s one thing Aston Villa has in its corner and that’s the revenge factor. These two met way back on Nov. 30 at London Stadium, with the Hammers earning a 2-1 victory. Yet, the scoreline was not indicative of the Villans’ dominating in that outing.

Aston Villa, which had a late Watkins equalizer taken off the scoreboard, actually dominated West Ham. The Villans controlled things throughout, finishing with a whopping 2.6-0.6 xGF edge in defeat.

That said, I am backing Aston Villa to even the season series and will play it on the moneyline at +120 odds.

I will also sprinkle a little on the total staying under the alternative number of three goals as well. Three of the Villans’ last four outings have finished with two goals or less, including 1-0 and 2-0 shutout victories for the hosts.

Picks: Aston VIlla ML (+120) | Total Under 3 Goals (-129)

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