Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Leicester City vs. Wolves (Sunday, Nov. 8)
Plumb Images/Leicester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Leicester City star Jamie Vardy.
- Two sides looking to compete with the biggest Premier League clubs battle Sunday when Leicester City hosts Wolves.
- Matthew Trebby takes a look at this match and gives you his top picks below.
Leicester City vs. Wolves Odds
|Leicester City Odds||+138 [BET NOW]|
|Wolves Odds||+225 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+210 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-159/+132) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Sunday, 9 a.m. ET|
Two teams in good form meet Sunday when Leicester City looks to go top of the Premier League table with a win against Wolves at King Power Stadium.
After losing consecutive matches to Manchester City and West Ham, Wolves has taken 10 points from its last three games. Meanwhile, Leicester has started the season as it did the previous campaign and that’s very strongly.
The Foxes have won five consecutive games across all competitions, highlighted by victories in five of their first seven league fixtures. A victory would put then in first place heading into the international break unless Liverpool defeats Manchester City later in the day.
That said, let’s find the value in this match:
While the rest of the Premier League changes, Leicester mostly remains the same.
The Foxes are lethal on the counter attack, with their 4-1 win over Leeds United providing the perfect example. Leicester had just 32% of possession, but were only outshot, 11-10 and proved far more lethal in front of goal.
Leicester won its first three games to start the season before home defeats against West Ham and Aston Villa slowed its progress. An away win at Arsenal, during which the Foxes remained patient and withstood pressure before a typical Jamie Vardy goal sealed three points, got them back on track.
Leicester isn’t totally the “smash and grab” side it was during the 2015/16 season when it won the league. Manager Brendan Rodgers has created a more balanced side, with plenty of ball-playing talent in midfield that can hang with most sides in England.
One concern about Leicester’s attack is its reliance upon penalty kicks for goals. The Foxes have scored an impressive 17 league goals this season, but their non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD) is just 7.18, which ranks toward the middle of the pack.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Wolves has won three of its last four games, but have scored just five during that time span. Its eight goals through seven games this season is a troubling trend for a side that sold Diogo Jota to Liverpool in the transfer window and now relies on new faces to create chances.
Pedro Neto and Daniel Podence have joined Raul Jimenez on the attack, but each have just one goal this season, to go along with two assists. Wolves will not get get goals from Ruben Neves, Joao Moutinho or Leander Dendoncker in midfield, so Neto and Podence need to step up their production.
Wolves’ 6.35 xG ranks 18th in the league, and its 9.19 xGA is the ninth-highest total in the league. If the club is to take a step up and reclaim a spot in European competition this season, it’s going to be with an enhanced attack, led by the wingers they’re hoping to replace Jota.
Given Wolves’ lack of goals and Leicester’s willingness to sit back and let the game come to it, it’s fair to expect this game not be flush with goals. Leicester will be disciplined and look to avoid getting beaten on the counter attack by the Wolves’ pace. The total of under 2.5 goals doesn’t offer great value at minus-159, though, so we’ll look to pair that with the result for fantastic value.
Leicester has more to play for at the top of the table, and getting plus odds at home is a great deal. Expect the Foxes to remain calm and composed, as well as getting the majority of the best chances in a game that won’t have many.
I am recommending parlaying Leicester’s +138 moneyline with under 2.5 goals at -159, which gets you up to +360 odds. The Foxes withstood the onslaught that is Leeds United’s attack and held Arsenal scoreless away from home in their last two games.
If Leicester keeps track of Jimenez, it should be able to keep the clean sheet.
Pick: Parlay — Leicester City ML (+138) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-159)