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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our EPL Best Bets, Featuring Tottenham vs. Burnley (May 15-17)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Preview: Our EPL Best Bets, Featuring Tottenham vs. Burnley (May 15-17) article feature image
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Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham star Harry Kane.

The penultimate weekend of the Premier League season commences Sunday, with seven matches taking place before a lone games takes center stage on the Monday and Tuesday cards.

However, the highlight of the weekend in England is Saturday’s FA Cup final, with Chelsea facing Liverpool in a battle of EPL powers at Wembley Stadium.

Manchester City can’t win the league title this weekend with a victory against West Ham United on Sunday, but it can come within a point of doing so.

Tottenham and Arsenal are in the middle of a top-four race that seems destined to come down to next week’s Championship Sunday slate. This week, Spurs hosts Burnley on Sunday and Arsenal travels to Newcastle United on Monday. The 37th matchweek of the season ends Tuesday with Southampton hosting  second-place Liverpool.

At the bottom of the table, Burnley, Leeds United and Everton play at staggered times , meaning Everton could realistically clinch safety if results all went their way. If not, the EPL will have its top four, title and relegation battles come down to the final midweek matches and May 22 season finales.

That said, here are my best bets for the shortened Premier League slate.

 

EPL Best Bets

Spurs vs. Burnley

Spurs Odds -280
Burnley Odds +800
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-165 / +135)
Day | Time Sunday | 7:30 a.m. ET
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Tottenham had its biggest win of the season to date this past Thursday, earning an emotional 3-0 home victory against arch-rival Arsenal in their latest North London derby.

Next up is a tricky home match with Burnley, which is fighting for its EPL life. The Clarets are tied with Leeds on points in the relegation places. Spurs last played Burnley following an upset victory against Man City in February.

Tottenham was flat in a road showing at Turf Moor four days later and suffered a 1-0 road defeat. Spurs created just 0.6 xG in the setback.

Burnley has shown more attacking intent under interim manager Mike Jackson, but I don’t expect that to continue in this match. The Clarets have been more aggressive against Watford, Southampton and Aston Villa, but this is an away match against a top-six side.

 

Burnley should be its defensive self, looking to force Spurs to break down a low block with its possession and patient build-up.

Tottenham is lethal when given space to play into behind a defense, but its wing backs lack consistency with crosses when there are defenders in front of them. Emerson Royal and Ryan Sessegnon are not Spurs’ first-choice center backs and playing due to injury.

So, I have concern with Tottenham’s ability to get margin because of them.

Burnley has a rest advantage and is plenty motivated to get a result. Based on my projections, Spurs are inflated. I only make Tottenham a 1.2-goal favorite and, yet, they’re currently a 1.5-goal favorite.

In my opinion, Tottenham is the fourth-best team in the EPL, but based on the number, this is a good sell spot as it chases fourth place and spot in next season’s Champions League.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Burnley +1.5 (-120 or better)

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Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace

Aston Villa Odds +105
Crystal Palace Odds +250
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -105)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Crystal Palace and Aston Villa want to play on the counterattack and go forward in transition whenever possible. This could set up for a pretty bland stalemate if neither side overcommits to chances with nothing to really play for in this game.

The final table position matters for both of these clubs, especially as Palace chases a potential top-10 finish, but the total is a bit inflated given the struggles the away side has when it comes to creating chances.

The Eagles have produced 0.88 xG per match in road matches , which is the fourth worst in the entire league. The Villans’ defense has also been excellent since Steven Gerrard took over managerial duties, with the variance swinging against the host. The regression indicators point toward the under as well, as Villa has conceded 49 goals from about 43 xG overall.

Villa has struggled to get the balance right between defending and attacking, plus it has been one of the least efficient teams at turning final-third possession into shots. That plays well for Palace, which doesn’t mind letting teams have the ball, but doesn’t concede big scoring chances. The defense is top five in big scoring chances, shots and xG allowed despite just above-average ball progression allowed numbers.

My projection has just 2.25 goals for this match, leading me to believe the total is pretty inflated. Defenses historically drop off with little on the line toward the end of a season, but given the impressive defensive metrics for these clubs and potential game state of neither selling out in attack to leave themselves exposed, the scoring chance should be limited.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-120 or better)

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Everton vs. Brentford

Everton Odds +110
Brentford Odds +250
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -115)
Day | Time Sunday | 11 a.m. ET
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Brentford is the better team, yet a significant underdog in this contest. Everton is a classic example of the team in a must-win situation that’s overvalued in the market.

The same was true for the Toffees on the road at Watford last time out. They were overvalued and closed as -180 road favorites, then settled for a 0-0 draw in a game with few high-quality scoring chances.

Everton’s recent good form has been driven by marginal performance improvement, excellent goalkeeping and variance. The Toffees are still clearly worse than the Bees, have defensive injuries and major midfield question marks. Everton doesn’t defend set pieces well if you’re looking at the aggregate of the entire season. And that’s a big Brentford attacking strength.

The Bees have a chance at a top-10 finish, plus a shot to help relegate a much bigger club. They’re not a team I’d expect to give in or be on early holiday. Even though Brentford has been much worse away from home, I have to back the visiting side at this number.

My projections have Brentford as the clearly better outfit, and I have this lined as a toss-up once factoring in home field for Everton. That said, I’d back Brentford getting +0.5 on the spread line at -130 or better. and my top pick.

And if Burnley and Leeds lose before Everton, a draw would be enough to all but secure safety for manager Frank Lampard’s side.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Brentford +0.5 (-130 or better)

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