Premier League Betting Odds and Picks: Tottenham vs. Chelsea, Norwich vs. Wolves and More
ADRIAN DENNIS/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Frank Lampard
Things have pretty much returned to normal in Premier League action, with the winter break over and teams back in full swing.
Several big matches take place this weekend, highlighted by Chelsea hosting Tottenham Hotspur in a battle of league powers at Stamford Bridge.
Tottenham Hotspur at Chelsea Odds
Tottenham odds: +380
Chelsea odds: -143
Over/Under: 2.5 (-122/+100)
Time: Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
Chelsea, currently sitting in fourth place on 41 points and third in expected goals at 49.90 this season, could not have had less fortune than it did Monday when it suffered a 2-0 home loss against Manchester United.
Frustration can’t even begin to describe the emotion felt by Chelsea supporters and backers for that match. The Blues had not one, but two goals overruled by VAR (Video Assistant Review), both of which could have changed the entire complexion of the match at the time they were disallowed.
Chelsea was the better side for much of the game, particularly in the first half when it dominated, only to concede a late United goal via Anthony Martial and find itself down, 1-0, at the break.
The Blues will look to right the ship Saturday in their showdown with Tottenham, which looked sluggish and out of sync in its 1-0 loss to Red Bull Leipzig in Champions League play on Wednesday in Germany.
Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur Trends and Stats
- Chelsea has scored at least two goals in nine of its last 10 home matches against Tottenham across all competitions
- Tottenham has just three shutouts in 19 road matches across all competitions
- Chelsea is unbeaten in 24 of its last 25 home matches against Tottenham across all competitions
- Tottenham has lost the last three contests against Chelsea
- Chelsea has struggled to secure victories of late, winning just two of its last seven Premier League matches
Despite the loss, Tottenham has been solid in league play as of late, going 3-0-1 in its last four Premier League matches (including three consecutive wins) prior to the midweek loss to Leipzig. Spurs are just a point behind Chelsea on the table and holds down fifth place entering the match.
On paper, there shouldn’t be much panic from Tottenham and manager Jose Mourinho. However, Spurs lost marquee winger Son Heung-Min for potentially the remainder of the season when the South Korean star fractured his arm during last week’s win at Aston Villa. Son had two goals in that match, including the winner in stoppage time.
That leaves Mourinho without his top two scoring options in Son and Harry Kane, who has been out since the start of the year. Tottenham, surprisingly only ranked ninth in expected goals (36.48) this season, looked lost and out of sorts offensively against Leipzig, which tells me it might take some time for it to get any continuity flowing toward goal.
That all said, I feel Tottenham is going to be up against it at Chelsea. Spurs will be on short rest and I think the Blues will be all over their foes from the opening whistle. Chelsea is going to be playing with a major chip on its shoulder after that Manchester United defeat, especially due to the fact it deserved a better fate that it was dealt.
Back Chelsea to win this match outright and look for both clubs to find the back of the net.
The Bet(s): Chelsea (-143); Both Teams To Score: Yes (-134)
Brighton & Hove Albion at Sheffield United
- Brighton odds: +335
- Sheffield United odds: -107
- Draw: +230
- Over/Under: 2.5 (+128/-159)
- Time: Saturday, 10 a.m. ET
The distinct possibility of earning a coveted Champions League berth is very much alive for upstart Sheffield United, which sits just two points behind fourth-place Chelsea on the league table.
The Blades, ranked 12th in expected league goals at 33.67 this season, picked up a tough 2-1 win last week at home against AFC Bournemouth to keep their magical season intact.
In contrast, Brighton can’t do much right at this time and is in serious danger of finding itself in the relegation zone.
And how bad has it been for Brighton? So bad that we backed lowly Watford, currently 19th in the league standings, in last week’s match at Brighton and the underdog visitor secured a 1-1 draw.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Sheffield United Trends and Stats
- Brighton is winless in 11 of its last 12 road Premier League contests
- Sheffield United is 6-3-2 over its last 11 league contests
- Brighton has kept only two clean sheets in 13 league road contests this season
- The total has gone Over 2.5 goals in Sheffield United’s last three home matches against Brighton across all competitions
The Seagulls, ranked 10th in expected goals (35.67) are winless in their last six Premier League matches (0-2-4) and have just one win in their last 11 league contests.
I feel like this is a borderline bad line, with oddsmakers truly believing Sheffield’s bubble will burst at some point.
The Blades, winners of their last three against the Seagulls, should probably be somewhere closer to minus-135 in my opinion, so I am more than happy to jump on this friendly number.
The Bet: Sheffield United (-107)
Norwich City at Wolverhampton Odds
- Norwich City odds: +575
- Wolverhampton odds: -195
- Draw: +310
- Over/Under: 2.5 (-114/-108)
- Time: Sunday, 9 a.m. ET
Wolverhampton returns to the pitch Sunday in a home showdown with struggling Norwich City.
Wolves, currently eighth in the league standings on 36 points and seventh place in expected goals (27.47) out of 20 clubs, are entering the match off a 4-0 drubbing of La Liga side Espanyol on Thursday in Europa League action. That effort was surely a welcome showing for manager Nuno Esprito Santo, who has seen his club struggle of late in league play.
Norwich City, which is third-to-last in expected goals (28.61), enters this match fresh off a tough 1-0 home loss against league leader Liverpool. The Canaries sit in last place in the standings, racking up just four wins and 18 points so far this season. Norwich City has just one road win in league action, which came back on November 23 via a 1-0 victory against Everton.
Wolverhampton vs. Norwich City Trends and Stats
- Norwich City is 1-9-3 on the road in Premier League action this season
- Wolverhampton has only been shut out once in 13 league matches
- Norwich City has a measly two wins in its last 21 league contests
- Wolverhampton is just 1-3-3 it is last seven league outings
Wolves has dominated Norwich City at Molineux Stadium in recent fixtures, going unbeaten in 12 of the last 13 outings.
Despite Wolverhampton being pretty sluggish in league tilts entering this match, I thought it looked fantastic against Espanyol. The short rest might be of concern for some, but I think that showing will springboard Wolves down the stretch and it starts right here against the league cellar dwellers.
The Bet: Wolverhampton -1 (-114)