Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Brentford vs. Leicester City Betting Preview (Oct. 24)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Brentford vs. Leicester City Betting Preview (Oct. 24) article feature image
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Pictured: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images. Yoane Wissa of Brentford celebrates with Ivan Toney and Rico Henry.

  • Brentford takes on Leicester City in Sunday’s Premier League showdown.
  • The Bees and Foxes have put together some solid offensive outings of late, which should make this an exciting affair.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the matchup below and details why he’s expecting plenty of goals.

Brentford vs. Leicester City Odds

Brentford Odds +165
Leicester City Odds +170
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-120/ +100)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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As Leicester City travel to West London to play Brentford on Sunday, it’ll be a matchup of one of the Premier League’s biggest underachievers thus far in 2021-22 in Leicester against the newcomer Bees.

The Bees have made plenty of fans with their defend-and-counterattack approach, as forwards Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo have combined to wreck good Premier League defenses like Liverpool and Arsenal this season.

Even though they came up short at home against Chelsea last week, the Bees are home yet again on Sunday and have an ability to expose a faltering Leicester City defense.

On the other end, though, the Foxes’ attack has been rapidly improving in recent weeks and that sets up this matchup to be more open and attacking at both ends of the pitch.

Brentford Defense Due for Regression

Brentford were incredibly unlucky not to find the back of the net against the Blues after creating 1.5 xG and a bunch of solid scoring opportunities, especially in the final 20 minutes of the game last Saturday.

The Bees, despite relatively mediocre ball progression numbers and below-average ranks in shots and box entries, have established a solid PL attack through Toney and Mbeumo.

Brentford create a lot of chances through direct attacks, which Leicester City has been really vulnerable to this season. The Bees are ninth in the PL in NPxG because they have created the fifth most big-scoring chances of .35 xG or better.

The Bees have also allowed the second fewest xGA per 90 in the league this year, but it’s incredibly hard to believe that a newly promoted side that was average at best defensively in the Championship has all of a sudden transformed itself into an elite PL defense.

When a team plays well above its talent level in a completely new system than it played the year before, regression is to be expected. More often than not, Brentford will end up being an average-at-best defensive team.

The defense ranks 14th in box entries allowed and 19th in crosses into the box, and while they’ve been excellent at not allowing that possession to become shots, Leicester are likely to find more success in transition against Brentford anyway with their quick-strike attack.

Leicester Attack Seeing Some Improvement

Leicester City’s attack struggled mightily in the first five games of the season, when it posted the following xG totals: 0.8, 0.8, 1.3, 0.8, 0.7. That’s an average of 0.88 per 90 and includes one Europa League game. The Foxes were near the bottom of the league in every attacking category from progressive passes, to shots, to xG, to goals.

The last six matches, though, have represented a significant turnaround. In the Foxes’ last four PL and two Europa League matches, they’ve averaged 2.4 xG per 90. The improvements have come with some new personnel, tactical switches and just better production after the Foxes stalled to begin the season.

Leicester’s defense continues to have significant issues since the injury to centerback Wesley Fofana, the injured and then out-of-form Willfried Ndidi in the defensive midfield and bad defending from the fullbacks on the wings.

The Foxes defense has conceded fewer big-scoring chances than every team in the Premier League, but given their other defensive numbers, that’s been more a product of good fortune than good defense.

Facing a Brentford attack that excels on set pieces and direct counterattacks, the Bees should be able to create plenty of high-quality chances.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

My projection for this match has 2.73 goals, and I’m OK playing anything -110 or better at 2.5 goals. I’ve been much lower than the market on this Brentford defense, but a promoted team staying as good defensively as they’ve been would be historic, and there’s defensive regression looming for the Bees.

However, Brentford have all the tools to be a successful attacking team on the counter against a Leicester defense that has looked very vulnerable defensively and made miscues all over the pitch.

The Foxes defense should have conceded more high-quality chances than they have, and the Bees are the ideal team to exploit that in this match.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-110 or better)

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