Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Chelsea vs. Norwich City Betting Preview (Oct. 23)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Chelsea vs. Norwich City Betting Preview (Oct. 23) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Lee – Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelseas standout Mason Mount.

  • Chelsea welcomes Norwich City to Stamford Bridge for Saturday's Premier League matchup.
  • The Blues, who currently sit atop the league table, will be without injured strikers Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner.
  • Brett Pund breaks down the matchup below and details below why he's expecting a low-scoring affair.

Chelsea vs. Norwich City Odds

Chelsea Odds -525
Norwich City Odds +1400
Draw +650
Over/Under 2.5 (-155 / +125)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

After seeing both strikers limp off with injuries on Wednesday night, Chelsea can count itself a bit lucky with the scheduling as it welcomes lowly Norwich City to Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

The Blues, who enter the weekend at the top of the Premier League table, will be without star strikers Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner for this match.

The Canaries will like their chances of getting something from the game much better now, but they are still bottom of the table without a win this season.

If you look at the history of this fixture, the home side has won 10 of the last 12 league matches against Norwich, but we’ll see how tricky this could be without their best goalscorers.

Mendy Leading Stout Chelsea Defense

Although it may seem like a loss due to the injuries, Chelsea does enter the weekend following a convincing 4-0 victory at home against Malmö in the Champions League.

Thomas Tuchel’s team has been steady through eight games in the Premier League, ranking in the top half of the table in expected goals (11.9), expected goals difference (+1.8) and big chances created (13), according to fbref.com.

Over the last five league matches, the Blues have outscored their opponents 10-2 in four wins and a loss to Man City, but they only posted an xG difference of +0.2 over that span.

The advanced defensive metrics may not be as impressive as last season once Tuchel took over, but Chelsea’s three goals allowed are tied with City for the lowest in the English top flight.

A big reason for that has been Senegalese goalkeeper Edouard Mendy, who leads the league in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes at +0.33.

Norwich City Looking to Take Flight

There hasn’t been a lot of positives to Norwich’s play through eight games, scoring the lowest amount of goals (2) on 6.8 expected goals.

When you add in the fact that the Canaries have allowed the second-most xG allowed (14.9) and have the worst xG difference (-8.1), it makes sense why they find themselves in deep trouble of a return to the EFL Championship.

Daniel Farke’s side has picked up its two points in the year in the previous two matches in scoreless draws with Burnley and Brighton.

Veteran striker Teemu Pukki has the team’s only two goals on the campaign, with the last one coming on September 18 in a home loss to Watford.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

My eyes are locked in on the total in this match, which is why I’m making my best bet on the Under 3 goals at -130.

We all know about the issues Norwich has scoring, and only two of its eight matches this season have gone over the total of three.

If you remove the high-scoring affair for the Blues against Southampton, their last four fixtures in the Premier League have had a combined expected goals tally of 2.275 per match. Counting the last four games for Norwich, the combined xG average was 2.225.

For the season, Tuchel’s team has only played over the total of three goals in one of eight league matches this season as well.

When you add in the fact that Chelsea’s best scorers are out for this match, all of the value is on the total in what I’m expecting to be a low-scoring match.

Pick: Total Goals Under 3 (-130)

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