Liverpool vs. Arsenal Odds, Prediction, Preview: The Unique Angle to Bet for Saturday EPL Clash
Andrew Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool star Mohamed Salah.
- Liverpool is a -220 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook for their Saturday showdown with Arsenal, down five cents from Friday night.
- Jeremy Pond is taking a unique betting angle in this Premier League match, playing the favorite and an alternate total in tandem at even money.
- Get his full Liverpool vs. Arsenal preview and pick below.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (+115 / -165)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||NBC | fuboTV | Peacock Premium|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Legendary Premier League clubs separated by just two points in the table square off Saturday when Liverpool faces Arsenal in their high-powered clash.
The Reds, currently in fourth place on 22 points, had their impressive 16-match unbeaten run to start the season halted in a 3-2 defeat at the hands of upstart West Ham United prior to the international break.
On the other side, the Gunners have done a complete 180-degree turn in the English top flight. After a woeful beginning that saw them open the EPL slate with three consecutive losses, they’ve gone undefeated in their last 10 games across all competitions.
Oddsmakers have listed Liverpool as a -225 favorite on the three-way moneyline ahead of this matchup at Anfield, with Arsenal checking in at +500 odds or longer at most shops. The draw is a ripe +375 as of writing.
Let’s take a look at this important showdown and see where we can find some betting value.
Liverpool, Salah Hoping for Huge Rebound Effort
This really is Mohamed Salah’s world at the moment and global soccer fans should be grateful they’re a part of it. The transcendent star is the biggest reason why the Reds are where they’re at in the standings and contending for another league crown.
Salah leads Liverpool with 10 goals and seven assists, with nine of the those tallies coming away from the penalty spot. His offensive statistics are even more staggering when you throw in the fact he’s averaging almost a goal per match (0.9) and almost 0.7 assists per outing. However, he didn’t score in the loss to West Ham, which won the xG battle by a 1.4-1-0 margin in the triumph.
And if you’re looking for a recap of Salah’s magic thus far, I’ve got you covered with his Liverpool highlight reel.
A special start to the season for @MoSalah 👌
Enjoy all of Mo's goals so far 🤩 pic.twitter.com/5ocEvbSZyJ
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) November 18, 2021
When it comes to the advanced metrics, Liverpool’s numbers are obviously first class all the way. The Reds have racked up a league-best 27.7 expected goals and conceded only 12.2 expected-goals against, generating a +12.2 xG differential and +1.41 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Bottom line, this juggernaut isn’t going anywhere when it comes to the top four and being part of the quartet of clubs I think will be in the mix for the league title. And I really believe the Reds still hold plenty of value at +400 odds via BetMGM to finish top of the table.
Arsenal Manager Arteta Full of Confidence
It was just a few months back when Mikel Arteta sat firmly on the managerial hot seat, with his club reeling after a horrendous start to its campaign. Fortunately for him, his Gunners took things from zero to 100 real quick and reeled off a 10-match unbeaten tear. That includes three consecutive wins against Aston Villa, Leicester City and Watford ahead of this clash.
So, if you thought Arteta’s confidence in his men would be there ahead of the trip to Anfield, you’d be correct. The Reds’ manager is full of optimism, believing the Reds can get a win and maybe even pull off the unlikely event of notching a fourth consecutive league shutout away from Emirates Stadium.
Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta says his side will beat Liverpool at Anfield for the first time in the league since 2012 if they "raise their game" on Saturday.
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) November 19, 2021
However, here’s a fun fact and ugly trend Arsenal needs to buck if that’s going to happen: Liverpool is undefeated in its last 10 home games against Arsenal across all competitions.
As for its statistics, Arsenal doesn’t hang with Liverpool in any of the major categories. The Reds sit on a paltry 14.3 xG and have conceded 16.5 xGA, resulting in a subpar -2.2 xGDiff and relatively flat -0.20 xGDiff/90 minutes.
So, if you’re a staunch Arsenal supporter and lover of soccer metrics, you’re probably a tad pessimistic on your club’s chances of getting a positive result.
Betting Analysis & Pick
These clubs are pretty close in form at the moment, but I think Liverpool rebounds from that West Ham defeat last time out. However, I have no desire playing the Reds at -225 odds. So, I need to get creative with my wager.
That said, I’m landing on the Same Game Parlay combining a Liverpool victory and the total staying under 4.5 goals via BetMGM and will make it my top pick. I think the Reds get the job done at Anfield, but I don’t think we’re going to see a whole lot of goals. These international breaks can generate some offensive rust, which I think we will see in this affair.
If you’re looking for a fun prop bet, sprinkle a little on Mohamed Salah to score anytime at -125 odds. By all means, this isn’t remotely a sexy play at this price, but I still think it’s worth backing since we’re talking about the EPL’s top scorer.
Pick: Same Game Parlay — Liverpool & Total Under 4.5 Goals (+100)