Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Manchester United vs. Burnley Betting Preview (Dec. 30)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Manchester United vs. Burnley Betting Preview (Dec. 30) article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Peters/Manchester United via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United goalkeeper David de Gea makes a save.

  • Manchester United is a growing favorite for Thursday's match against Burnley, going from -265 to -275 over the last day.
  • Burnley has been bumped up from +700 to +750 on the three-way line in a corresponding move. The over has also taken action, and while it's still at 2.5, the juice on the over has increased 20 cents.
  • Get our full Man United vs. Burnley preview and pick below.

Man United vs. Burnley Odds

Man United Odds -275
Burnley Odds +750
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-155 / +125)
Day | Time Thursday | 3:15 p.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds updated Thursday at 12:50 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Teams in solid form round out the Premier League midweek slate Thursday when Manchester United welcomes Burnley to Old Trafford.

The Red Devils, unbeaten in their last seven matches across all competitions, enter the game sitting seventh in the table on 28 points. Meanwhile, the Clarets only have one loss in six fixtures and return to the field for their first contest since their Dec. 12 draw with West Ham United.

When it comes to recent history, United has only lost once in the last 13 meetings with Burnley, which include eight wins and four draws, but manager Sean Dyche’s sides are always prepared and a tough test for any team.

Man United Unbeaten Under Rangnick

Life under new interim manager Ralf Rangnick has gotten off to an unbeaten start, with wins over Crystal Palace and Norwich City to go with draws against Young Boys (Champions League) and Newcastle United.

The primary area that needed improvement from the Red Devils was their defensive issues, and even in a short period of time, we’re already seeing improvements under Rangnick.

In his four games in charge, United has allowed 1.08 expected goals per match, according to fbref.com, which is much better than the 1.6 xGA per game before he took the reins.

It remains to be seen if this is true improvement or down to the lesser competition the Red Devils have played under his short term.

Burnley Finally Getting Back on Pitch

With its last three matches postponed, Burnley will be eager to shake off the rust and get back on the field. Dyche’s team was starting to pick up results before the break, but it still finds itself sitting in 18th in the relegation zone.

There have been issues all over the field for the Clarets, who rank toward the bottom of the EPL in non-penalty xG (15.1), shots per match (10.87) and xGA (22.2) this season.

Burnley will be making a late call on whether leading-scorer Maxwel Cornet is fit enough to return or not, which would be a huge boost for a side that struggles to score goals.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Oddsmakers at DraftKings are expecting a United victory, listing the home side as the -265 favorite. The total is listed at 2.5 goals.

That said, I’m not ready to back the Red Devils at this big of a price, but I do think there’s great value in the total. And for that reason, my best bet is to back the total staying under 2.75 goals at -110 odds on the Asian Handicap, which I would play all the way to -130 odds.

I mentioned above how Rangnick has improved the defensive metrics since he took over, and it shows in the totals as well. In his four games in charge, all have gone under this total and averaged a combined 2.48 xG in those affairs.

Burnley’s matches have also had low xG numbers, averaging 2.14 combined xG and 0.78 xG during that span.

When you combine the fact United hasn’t quite figured out Rangnick’s new system with extra prep time for a veteran manager like Dyche, I’m expecting a low-scoring affair in this game.

Pick: Total Under 2.75 Goals (-110)

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