Tuesday Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Southampton vs. Brentford Betting Preview

Southampton vs. Brentford Odds

There are two midweek fixtures in the Premier League this week, starting with Brentford’s trip to the South coast Tuesday to play Southampton.

The Bees have had a solid first half of the campaign, hovering around midtable with 23 points to sit in 12th place.

Meanwhile, the Saints are just two points off the visitors with only Brighton having as many draws in the season so far with nine.

As their places in the table suggests, this should be an even match in the English top flight, and I think this should lend to a tight, cagey fixture at Saint Mary’s Stadium.

Southampton Needs More From Attackers

When you look at the teams in the bottom-half of the EPL table, Southampton jumps out as a side that are either underperforming or very unlucky to be in the position they are in.

The Saints rank 10th in non-penalty expected goals per match (1.11) and shots per 90 minutes (12.26) and 11th in big scoring chances created (20), according to fbref.com. However, they have scored the sixth-fewest goals so far on the season with 20.

Club captain and veteran midfielder James Ward-Prowse has chipped in with five goals to go with Chelsea-loanee Armando Broja’s four, but Southampton need more from attackers Che Adams, Adam Armstrong and Theo Walcott to progress up the table.

In his postgame press conference last weekend, Saints manager Ralph Hasenhuttl said he is unsure if his team will have enough players to field a squad for this match, so make sure you check on any updates on absentees leading up to the game.

Things Have Gone South for Brentford

It has been a tale of two seasons so far for Brentford. After picking up 12 points from the first seven matches (1.7 points per game), the Bees have only picked up 11 in the 12 league fixtures that have followed (0.92 ppg).

The strength of the team so far has been its play defensively, where Brentford rank fifth in xG allowed per match (1.16) and shots allowed per 90 minutes (12.16) and eighth in goals allowed (26).

The Bees are also one of just eight EPL teams that have a positive xG difference on the campaign so far, posting a +0.4 through 19 matches.

Offensively, everything runs through Ivan Toney, who leads the team with four goals to go along with a pair of assists.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

BetMGM has Southampton slated as the even-money favorite on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5 goals.

I’m expecting a low-scoring affair in this game, which is why my best bet is to play the total staying under 2.5 goals at -120 odds.

If you start by looking at the attacking form from both teams over the last five matches, Brentford have averaged just 0.94 xG in those games. Meanwhile, Southampton have produced even less than that, averaging just 0.88 expected goals over the same span.

The combined xG numbers for both sides in recent fixtures also point to a low-scoring match. The last five league games involving the Saints have finished with 2.52 combined expected goals, while the Bees have averaged 1.88 combined xG in their last five EPL fixtures.

Next, you have to factor in the home and away results for both clubs. Of Southampton’s nine home games this season, only two (22%) have gone over the total of 2.5 goals for an average of 1.89 goals in those fixtures.

As for Brentford, the same bet would have cashed in five of nine EPL games away from home this campaign.

When you have two evenly matched sides that struggle to create chances, all signs point to taking the under as the best value in this game.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-120)