Spurs vs. Brentford Premier League Odds, Pick, Preview: Back Bees to Get Result at Tottenham

Spurs vs. Brentford Odds

There are two matches Thursday to close out the midweek Premier League slate, with the focus set on the latest London derby between host Tottenham and Brentford.

Spurs have played two league matches under new manager Antonio Conte, which resulted in a draw at Everton and home win over Leeds United this past weekend.

Meanwhile, the visitor enter the match in 11th place after 13 games in their first foray in the English top flight. The Bees have slipped a bit in form, though, with just four points from their last six outings.

When you look at the history between the clubs, Tottenham is unbeaten in their last 11 fixtures in all competitions against Brentford (eight wins, three draws), but I think there’s value on the visitors in this contest.

Tottenham Needs to Create More Going Forward

Of the recent manager changes in England, Conte’s move to Tottenham certainly made the biggest splash, although it hasn’t translated in the results as of yet.

Spurs did get positive results against Vitesse, Everton and Leeds, but the shocking loss to Slovenian side Mura in the European Conference League last week shows there’s a lot of room for improvement.

The biggest issue for Conte is going to improve a stale attack that ranks 17th in expected goals (13), 20th in shots per match (10.42) and 14th in big scoring chances created (10), according to fbref.com.

If you told Tottenham fans their team would be in seventh in the EPL after 12 matches even though Harry Kane only has one goal, they would have laughed at you. Luckily, though, that is where Conte’s team is at the moment.

Honeymoon Period Over for Brentford

After only losing one out of its first seven matches in its return to the EPL, Brentford has woken up from its dream start to lose four of the last six games.

The advanced metrics suggest there’s plenty to be happy about if you are manager Thomas Frank, whose team is in the top half of the league in non-penalty xG per match (1.22), shots per 90 minutes (11.46) and big scoring chances created (17) this season.

Everything going forward runs through striker Ivan Toney for the Bees, who leads the squad with four goals and two assists.

From a defensive perspective, Brentford’s numbers are still solid, ranking seventh in xG allowed (15), tied for seventh in goals allowed (17) and sixth in big scoring chances allowed (15) thus far.

Frank’s side is one of just six in the EPL to rank in the top 10 in both xG and xG allowed on the season, joining Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, West Ham United and Southampton.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The oddsmakers at DraftKings have the home team as the -160 favorite for this match, with the total set at 2.5 goals.

Even if you did say there’s been improvement under Conte, this number is way too high on Spurs here, which is why my best bet is to take Brentford on the Asian Handicap spread line of +0.75 at +110 odds.

We mentioned above how there has been a dip in form over the last six matches for the Bees, but the advanced stats tell a different story. Frank’s team has a -0.2 xG difference over that stretch and won the xG battle in three of those games.

Brentford has also picked up more points on the road (nine) this campaign compared to at home (seven) and rank seventh in points per game on the road.

When you line up the stats of these teams up side by side, the visitors have the edge in a lot of categories, and I think getting them at this high of a spread with plus money is too hard to turn down.

Pick: Brentford +0.75  (+110)