Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Chelsea Can Hang with Manchester City

Credit:

Martin Rickett/Pool via Getty Images. Pictured: Phil Foden of Manchester City celebrates with Sergio Aguero.

  • Motivation could be a factor in today's tilt, as Man City doesn't have much to play for while Chelsea needs all three points.
  • Further, Man City have been successful by beating up on teams outside the top-seven but have struggled against some of the better teams in the Premier League.
  • Is Man City overvalued in this matchup? We'll break it down below and highlight which side to bet.

Chelsea vs. Manchester City Odds

Chelsea Odds +320
Man City Odds -127
Draw Odds +300
Over/Under 3 (+107/-132)
Time 3:15 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

A clash at the top of the table takes place Thursday between Chelsea and Man City. With Liverpool’s win yesterday, a draw or loss for Man City will officially give Liverpool the title.


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Man City doesn’t have much to play for as its only a matter of time before Liverpool lifts the trophy. It will be interesting to see how motivated the Citizens are for this match.

Chelsea is sitting in a Champions League spot and needs all three points to keep a cushion between them and the current fifth place teams.

Chelsea

The Blues came back from the break by beating relegation side Aston Villa 2-0 on the road. Chelsea were dominant in possession (74%), but struggled to create high quality chances, as they lost the expected goals battle 1.40 to 1.62.

Chelsea has so much depth in attack that they were able to sit their two highest scorers (based on expected goals) for most of the game against Aston Villa. Then Captain America came on and made an instant impact on the game.

The Blues have been one of the best offensive teams in the Premier League this season with 1.91 xG per game. And their offense only gets better when they are at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues score a eye popping 2.21 xG per game, which ranks third in the Premier League. Their defense has also been stellar at Stamford Bridge, only allowing 0.74 xG per game, which is second best only to Man City.

I think Chelsea have the offensive fire power along with a rock solid defense that plays well at home to hang with Man City in this match.

Manchester City

The Citizens have looked invincible since the Premier League returned, blanking Arsenal 3-0 and Burnley 5-0 at the Etihad. There is no denying that Man City is one of the most lethal teams in all of Europe, scoring 2.62 xG per game and only allowing 0.94 xG per game.

Man City have been successful by beating up on teams outside the Top 7, but have struggled against some of the better teams in the Premier League:

GF/Game GA/Game
vs. Bottom 13 Teams 3.1 0.65
vs. Top 7 Teams 1.2 1.3

The Citizens obviously should be favored in this game, as on paper they are the better team. But Pep Guardiola’s men have looked vulnerable on too many occasions against good opponents for me to back them in this game.

Analysis 

Based on my model, I think Manchester City are overvalued in this match:

  • Chelsea projected odds: +248 (28.75% win probability)
  • Manchester City projected odds: +107 (48.37%)
  • Draw projected odds: +337 (22.88%)
  • Chelsea projected xG: 1.36
  • Manchester City projected xG: 1.82

I think the Blues can compete in this game, so I am going to back Chelsea +0.5.

Pick: Chelsea +0.5 (+108)

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