Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: West Ham United vs. Everton EPL Betting Preview (April 3)
Peter Byrne/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: West Ham United standout Tomáš Souček.
- West Ham United welcomes Everton to London Stadium for Sunday’s Premier League clash.
- The Hammers, who are heavy -130 ML favorites, are looking to keep pushing toward Europe competition next season
- Ian Quillen breaks down the meeting below and details why he’s backing West Ham to get the victory.
West Ham vs. Everton Odds
|West Ham Odds||-130|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-115 / -115)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV
|Odds updated as of Sunday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
West Ham United must avoid the trap of looking ahead to their Europa League quarterfinal Sunday when they host an Everton side in a Premier League relegation scrap at London Stadium.
The current EPL table should provide enough motivation enough for the Hammers. They sit three points behind Tottenham and Manchester United in the battle for Europa League places next season.
Everton entered the weekend in 17th place, putting it three clear of Watford in the final relegation place. The club also has two games in hand on all but Burnley in the bottom-six sides. However, the Toffees have yet to earn an away result since manager Frank Lampard took over in early February. In four games (three in league; one via FA Cup), they’ve conceded 14 goals and scored once.
Guided by former Everton boss David Moyes, West Ham took a 1-0 win in the previous league fixture back in October. That result began Everton’s miserable ongoing stretch of earning 11 points in 20 games in the English top flight.
West Ham Hoping to Maintain Solid Home Form
The Hammers began the season playing wide-open football on home soil, scoring three or more goals in wins over Leicester City, Liverpool and Chelsea.
However, after conceding three in home losses to Southampton and Leeds United, results have fallen more in line with Moyes’ old grind-it-out Everton aesthetic.
The Hammers are unbeaten with three wins in their last four at home, keeping two clean sheets. In only one of those matches — a 1-0 win over Wolverhampton — did either side create more than 1.2 expected goals’ worth of chances.
Moyes has indicated forward Jarrod Bowen and defender Vladimir Coufal returned to training during the international break. Coufal has been out since undergoing groin surgery in late February. Bowen picked up a heel injury in early March after a fine run of form earlier in 2022, when he scored seven goals in seven matches across all competitions between Jan. 9 and Feb. 13.
Bowen and Michail Antonio are joint West Ham scoring leaders, with eight goals each in league play. Antonio has also been quiet of late — perhaps due to an excessive work load — with only one assist and no goals in his last five matches overall.
Antonio had played 584 minutes in 22 days in his last seven outings, but he was pulled after 55 minutes in the Hammers’ last outing, which was a 3-1 loss at Spurs and left out of an eliminated Jamaica squad in recent World Cup qualifying competition.
Everton Struggling With Lampard at Helm
Playing with only 10 men, Everton got the miracle it needed in its last EPL outing in the form of Alex Iwobi’s 99th-minute winner in a 1-0 home triumph over Newcastle United.
However, a 4-0 drubbing at Crystal Palace in the FA Cup quarterfinal round three days later provided a swift reminder of the Toffees’ away struggles under Lampard. Since his debut in early February, Everton has created exactly one “big chance” in four away games in all competitions, according to FotMob.com.
The Toffees’ 1.0 xG created against the Eagles was a high-water mark during that sample, but it came in a match where the hosts led by two at halftime and were comfortable to sit deep and counterattack. Even worse, Lampard seems to have impacted Everton’s most consistent performer in a negative way.
Brazilian attacker Richarlison has yet to score under his new manager, accumulating just 1.2 xG worth of chances and 0.1 worth of expected assists in 622 league minutes. That amounts to 0.17 xG and 0.01 xA per 90 minutes. In previous games under Rafa Benitez and one under interim boss Duncan Ferguson, Richarlison averaged 0.26 xG and 0.16 xA per 90 this season.
If there’s a bright spot to Everton’s international break, it’s that Richarlison scored three goals in 103 minutes for Brazil over their final two World Cup qualifying matches.
BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
Everton is in a weird spot. Metrics suggest the Toffees are playing worse under Lampard than Benitez, yet the former is decidedly more popular among supporters and the home performances have had a clear emotional bite that they once lacked.
That edge at Goodison Park might be enough to keep the Toffees up, but if they do stay in the EPL, it seems unlikely to be via their away form.
Meanwhile, the Hammers have a renewed home defensive focus. And their last, lopsided 3-1 defeat at Spurs is forgivable. It came less than 72 hours after going extra time in the second leg of their Round of 16 Europa League triumph over La Liga standout Sevilla.
Given all that, the value that exists is on the home side via a moneyline wager. Even if Everton somehow finds a goal, it strains credulity it would find the back of the net twice in this matchup. And the Toffees have conceded multiple goals in every league away trip this season.
Of those away foes, the Hammers are better than all but Spurs. And had they has Spurs’ branding credibility, it’s unlikely they’d be given odds of -130 odds that imply only a 56.5% chance of victory.
If you must get more aggressive, the Everton team total of under 0.5 goals at +140 odds and an implied 41.7% value is also a solid play. I’m more confident on the ML bet, though.
Pick: West Ham ML (-130)