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Manchester United vs. Brentford Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Cristiano Ronaldo, Red Devils Avoid EPL Upset?

Manchester United vs. Brentford Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Can Cristiano Ronaldo, Red Devils Avoid EPL Upset? article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United star Cristiano Ronaldo.

  • Manchester United enters Wednesday's Premier League clash with Brentford as a -135 road favorite.
  • The Red Devils have just one loss in their last 11 overall in their push for European qualification next season.
  • Brett Pund breaks down the matchup below and details why he thinks there's betting value on Brentford to get a result.

Brentford vs. Man United Odds

Brentford Odds +375
Man United Odds -130
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -115)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Wednesday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

To close out the midweek Premier League slate, Brentford hosts Manchester United at Brentford Community Stadium on Wednesday with a chance to pick up a rare win over the European giant.

The Bees enter the match as losers of four of their last five in league play to find themselves in 14th place on 23 points.

Meanwhile, the Red Devils are enjoying a decent run of form under the new manager, with only one loss in their last 11 across all competitions as they continue to push for European qualification next season.

This is the first league contest between the sides since April 1947 and I think the home underdog has a great chance to spring a surprise.

Brentford Hoping to Squash Poor Run

This recent stretch has easily been the worst of the season for Brentford, who enter the showdown with only one win in five games in the league action and carry a -4.6 expected-goal difference during that span, according to fbref.com.

The poor run also includes consecutive losses to Southampton and Liverpool by a combined goal difference of -6, while averaging just 0.6 xG per match in the last five league games.

When it comes to the offensive struggles, this hasn’t been anything new for the Bees. In its opening nine EPL games, manager Thomas Frank’s side averaged 1.38 xG per 90 minutes. However, that same average has dropped to 0.93 xG over their last 12 league fixtures.

For some positivity, Brentford has been solid defensively, ranking eighth in the English top flight in xG allowed per game at 1.27 this season.

Recent Schedule Kind to Man United

Since Ralph Rangnick’s first match in charge on Dec. 5, United only has one loss overall and that came against Wolves, but it has been a very easy schedule since he has appointed.

The Red Devils have played the likes of Young Boys in the Champions League, Norwich City, Newcastle United, Burnley and Aston Villa twice in his tenure.

During that span, United has averaged 1.27 xG per match, which is a drop from the 1.42 average per game in all contests before Rangnick arrived. However, there has been improvement defensively, dropping the xG allowed average from 1.6 goals per match to 1.11 this season.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

When we look at the odds at BetMGM, United is slated as the heavy favorite at -130 on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5 goals.

I don’t think the Red Devils are worthy of being this big of a price, which is why my best bet for this game is to take Brentford on the three-way handicap of +1 at even money.

If you play at a sportsbook that offers the Bees on the two-way line of +0.5 at a similar price, I like that betting angle as well since I think Brentford can pull off at least a draw in this match.

I mentioned how well United has played since Rangnick’s appointment, but his side hasn’t been as successful away from home. The Red Devils drew at Aston Villa and Newcastle after an unconvincing 1-0 victory at Norwich City.

Meanwhile, Brentford has been a tough at home against the top-six teams. This same bet would have cashed in home games against Arsenal and Liverpool, while the Bees only lost to Manchester City and Chelsea by a goal.

Manchester United could also be peeking ahead to a very important game at the weekend against West Ham United, who is a direct rival for the fourth UCL place for next season.

For a smaller club like Brentford, home fixtures against teams like Manchester United are circled when the schedules come out and  I think the Bees have great value to get a positive result in this matchup.

Pick: Three-Way Handicap — Brentford +1 (+100)

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