Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Harry Kane, Tottenham to Light Up Leicester City in EPL Match
Julian Finney/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham stars Son Heung-min and Harry Kane celebrate a goal.
- Tottenham enters Wednesday's Premier League match with Leicester City as a small +125 favorite.
- Manager Antonio Conte has Spurs humming at the moment, which Nick Hennion thinks will give them the edge at King Power Stadium.
- Check out below why he expects Tottenham to have no issues scoring multiple goals in this meeting.
Leicester City vs. Spurs Odds
|Leicester City Odds||+210|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125 / +100)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Having had three consecutive Premier League fixtures postponed, a well-rested Leicester City hosts Tottenham on Wednesday at King Power Stadium.
The Foxes last played an EPL match on Dec. 28 against Liverpool, where they emerged with a 1-0 home victory. As for Tottenham, it saw this past Sunday’s latest North London derby with Arsenal postponed and last played a league game on New Year’s Day, which resulted in a 1-0 road victory at Watford.
Historically, this matchup has produced even results, with each side picking up two wins in the last four head-to-head meetings. However, Tottenham has won five of its last eight EPL encounters with Leicester City.
Injuries Piling Up for Leicester City
The logical place to start with the Foxes is its injury concerns, because manager Brendan Rodgers has quite a few.
Ryan Bertrand, Timothy Castagne, Jonny Evans, Wesley Fofana, Ricardo Pereira and Jamie Vardy will be definite absences for this fixture, while Daniel Amartey, Kelechi Iheanacho, Nampalys Mendy and Wilfred Ndidi are away on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations tournament.
The good news is Harvey Barnes, Patson Daka, James Justin, Caglar Soyuncu and Luke Thomas appear scheduled to return from injury spells for this game.
However, even with reinforcements arriving, Leicester still has a lot of metrics to correct if it hopes to win points against an in-form Tottenham squad.
Simply put, Leicester has one of the worst EPL defenses. Despite sitting 10th in the table, the Foxes are 18th in shot-creating actions against, 17th in xGA/90 and 15th in shots on target against per 90 minutes and goal-creating actions against/90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Plus, the Leicester defense has struggled to contain the league’s best sides. In seven matches against the current top seven, the Foxes have conceded at least 2.5 expected goals in five games. Additionally, Leicester has allowed 18 goals on 16.1 xG in those seven fixtures and lost five of those matches in the advanced metric.
That said, the good news for possible Leicester backers is it has done no worse than a draw on xG in its last four head-to-head meetings with Tottenham despite losing two of four meetings.
Spurs Looking Like New Team Under Conte
It simply can’t be overstated how well Tottenham has played since Antonio Conte arrived in North London. Suddenly considered top-four contenders, Spurs are unbeaten in eight (five wins; three draws) and have posted xG victories in those fixtures.
Plus, Tottenham’s defense appears to have found a groove, having allowed under 1.0 xG in five of eight games and no more than 1.5 xG in seven of eight contests, per fbref.com.
On the flip side, Spurs’ attack has produced a spectacular run of form. After a 0.8 xG performance against Everton, Tottenham has registered no fewer than 1.7 xG in any of its previous seven EPL fixtures.
And perhaps the most eye-opening stat is that Spurs are due for a good amount of positive offensive regression based on that set of contests. In those eight matches, Conte’s squad generated 14 goals on 17.2 xG overall.
The same can be said for its road metrics as well, as Tottenham currently sits on a -3 goal differential, but holds a +2.7 road xGDiff this season.
The final Spurs’ offensive stat worth mentioning is their NP xG record versus their non-penalty goals tally. To date, Tottenham has experienced the second-largest misfortune in that category. As it stands, Spurs have scored 19 non-penalty goals on 25.9 non-penalty expected goals, a negative delta that sits behind only Norwich City (-9.5) in that category.
Betting Analysis & Pick
From my perspective, I don’t want to bet into any markets involving Leicester City, as I have no idea what to expect after such a lengthy off period.
However, if there’s one thing we can (usually) count on with the Foxes, it’s that goals will be conceded. Combine that with Tottenham’s aforementioned offensive stats and I believe it’s in most bettors’ interest to target a team total.
Not only is Tottenham due for a healthy amount of positive offensive regression, but it also holds a brilliant goal-scoring record against the league’s worst defenses.
In four matches against the remaining sides occupying the bottom-five xGA/90-minute spots, Spurs have generated two-plus xG in four consecutive games and scored two or more goals in three of those four fixtures.
Meanwhile, Leicester has only kept three clean sheets all season and allowed at least 2.5 xG in six matches against teams ranked first, third and sixth in xG/90 minutes.
Pick: Spurs — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+100)
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