Premier League Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Chelsea, Christian Pulisic to Down Cristiano Ronaldo & Manchester United

Premier League Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back Chelsea, Christian Pulisic to Down Cristiano Ronaldo & Manchester United article feature image

Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea standouts Trevoh Chalobah, left, Reece James and Christian Pulisic.

  • Chelsea welcomes Manchester United to Stamford Bridge for Sunday's epic Premier League clash.
  • The Blues are heavy favorites to continue their stellar play, which has put them top of the table.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the matchup below and explains the creative way he's backing Chelsea to triumph.

Chelsea vs. Man United Odds

Chelsea Odds-175
Man United Odds+475
Over/Under2.5 (-140 / +110)
Day | TimeSunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchPeacock Premium
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Things should be at a fever pitch inside Stamford Bridge on Sunday when Chelsea hosts Manchester United in a star-studded Premier League clash.

The Blues enter this affair sitting pretty atop the table on 29 points, putting them three clear of Manchester City and four ahead of Liverpool in the race for this season's league crown. Chelsea has also been stellar in Champions League play, parking itself in first place in the Group H standings after its convincing 4-0 rout of fellow European giant Juventus in their midweek game.

In contrast, it has been a roller coaster of a season for the Red Devils. The legendary club suffered a brutal 4-1 defeat at the hands of lowly Watford in last weekend's EPL fixtures, resulting in the sacking of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. However, United rebounded with a huge 2-0 win at Villarreal in UCL play, giving caretaker manager Michael Carrick the win in his debut.

Manchester United confirmed to Ralf Rangnick his ‘consultancy’ role from June 2022 until 2024 – but Ralf would be interested in taking the full time manager role if offered. 🔴🇩🇪 #MUFC

Rangnick’s camp working on work permit. It’s taking time – he’s planning to arrive next week.

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) November 26, 2021

Unfortunately for Carrick, the former United man's time leading the Red Devils looks to be short-lived with the news that Ralf Rangnick of Lokomotiv Moscow would be taking the reins. Fans and pundits alike have praised this hire as one that could change the complete look and approach at one of the most storied outfits in soccer history.

Oddsmakers are giving United little chance to come out victorious here, putting the underdog at +475 on the three-way moneyline. That means Chelsea is a massive home favorite at -175 odds. The draw is sitting at +330 as of this writing.

Let's take a look at this contest and see where we can find some betting value.

Midweek Victory Costly for Chelsea

To say Chelsea was first class in Tuesday's triumph against its Serie A foe would be an understatement. The reigning UCL champion dominated from start to finish, getting goals from four different players (including a 55th-minute striker from Reece James) and held a 2.8-0.5 edge in expected goals.

However, the win didn't come without a cost. The Blues lost standout defender Ben Chilwell to a knee injury (see below) and he will be out for at least six weeks — and likely more — according to reports from the club. Fellow standout N'Golo Kante also picked up a knock and will miss this match.

Chelsea confirm Ben Chilwell has a partial ACL injury and the club will decide whether he needs surgery in six weeks.

N'Golo Kante will also miss this weekend's Manchester United game with a twisted knee.

— B/R Football (@brfootball) November 26, 2021

When it comes to the advanced metrics, Chelsea continues to be one of the best in the English top flight. The Blues have accumulated 21.8 expected goals and yielded 11.9 xGA, resulting in a solid +9.9 xG differential and +0.83 xGDiff per 90 minutes.

Bottom line, these are strong numbers indicative of a side that has gone unbeaten in 10 of its last 12 matches across all competitions. If Chelsea puts together an effort even remotely close to mirroring what happened against Juventus, then United is going to be in for a long day on the road.

Man United Hoping to Build Off Triumph

For as much as Manchester United was down and out after last weekend's defeat at Watford, it showed plenty of moxie in its win at Villarreal. Cristiano Ronaldo was up to his old tricks again, putting the Red Devils ahead in the 78th minute before Jadon Sancho closed things out with his 90th-minute strike.


— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) November 23, 2021

The latest positive effort just added to Manchester United's mixed bag of results of late. The club has gone 4-6-2 (W-L-D) over its last 12 matches overall. And despite being atop its UCL group and eighth in the EPL standings, that kind of inconsistency is what led to Solskjaer getting sacked.

Yet, there seems to a bright beacon of hope arriving at Old Trafford via Rangnick, who's leaving the Russian Premier League stalwart to ply his trade with the Red Devils. The move even drew some praise — and perhaps some minor concern — from Jurgen Klopp, with the Liverpool manager saying it was "not good news for other" EPL teams.

As for the Red Devils' numbers compared to the data their hosts have put together, they don't hold much weight against them. Manchester United has amassed 17.1 xG and given up a subpar 19.7 xGA, generating in a disappointing -2.6 xGDiff and relatively flat -0.22 xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

It's hard for me to imagine Manchester United finishing this match with anything but another league defeat. The Red Devils are in a managerial transition with a lame duck in Carrick roaming the sideline for this affair.

Then, toss in the fact Chelsea is playing better than anyone on the domestic and international landscapes, and you have a prime spot for the host to tuck another three points away in its EPL account.

That said, we're going back to our favorite wager — Same Game Parlay — at the moment. We're combining Chelsea to win with the total clearing 1.5 goals at -115 odds via DraftKings as our top pick. I could see this confrontation ending with the Blues earning a 2-0 win or similar.

Chelsea has scored at least two goals in four of its last six league games at home. And when you combine the fact United's back line is ravaged — specifically with the loss of injured Harry Maguire — with colleague BJ Cunningham forecasting the Blues at 2.02 xG, I like my chances.

Pick: Same Game Parlay: Chelsea To Win & Total Over 1.5 Goals (-115)

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