Saturday Premier League Updated Odds, Picks & Prediction: Man City vs. Bournemouth Betting Preview
Julian Finney/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City star Erling Haaland.
Man City vs. Bournemouth Odds
|Man City Odds||-1200|
|Over/Under||3.5 (-115 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Manchester City hosts AFC Bournemouth at Etihad Stadium on Saturday in their Premier League soccer showdown.
While these are clubs of far different statures and history, they both enter this game with three points and a +2 goal differential. Of course, only one fixture has been played by each team in the league and the odds don’t reflect an even match.
The Cherries are looking to play spoiler for against a team that has had its way with its EPl foes over the years. So, do they have any chance of doing so in this meeting?
It only took Erling Haaland one game to showcase just how good he can be.
The former Borussia Dortmund star netted two goals in his debut against West Ham United, and while one of those goals came via a penalty, he generated 2.17 expected goals in the single game alone.
Of course, part of the reason he generated that xG is because of the playmaking ability around him. With the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden and Jack Grealish providing support, this attack is going to be a nightmare for defenses to deal with this season.
With a healthy back line and one of the most potent attacking forces in the league, the Cityzens are going to be tough to knock off once again.
By The Numbers
- 0.25 — City conceded just 0.25 xG against West Ham, picking up right where it left off in terms of defensive structure. City has maintained the fewest xGA in the league in every season since 2016, which is a mind-boggling stat.
- 95 — Haaland is in this percentile or above in assists per 90 minutes, non-penalty goals per 90 minutes and non-penalty expected goals, and assists per 90 minutes. Good luck, Premier League foes.
The Cherries weren’t expected to pick up three points in their opener against a popular side in Aston Villa, but a sturdy performance and solid finishing earned them the victory.
Bournemouth only generated a 0.1 xG differential, but that number doesn’t do the 2-0 scoreline justice. It came in with a plan, afforded Villa very few scoring opportunities and capitalized on the other end.
Manager Scott Parker’s men will have to take a similar approach against City, though the difficulty will be raised 10 times. Statistically, securing a result at Etihad is the second-toughest task in the league, trailing only a visit to Liverpool at Anfield, but this year that might not be the case.
Bournemouth will certainly have its hands full.
By The Numbers
- 2 — The Cherries conceded just this number of shots on target against Aston Villa, a testament to the barriers they placed around the box for the Lions.
- 16 — Bournemouth is winless in 16 league games against City, which is tied for the Premier League record of games played without securing a win against a side, per the BBC news outlet.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This is one of the biggest lines you’ll see all year. It’s rare that any team touches -1000 on the moneyline. And because of that, finding value in this market is difficult.
Manchester City has posted 3 xG or more in five of its last seven EPL games, so at -110 odds, the total of 3.5 goals likely has some value. Bournemouth has a chance at scoring on the counterattack, and particularly if City takes an early lead it’ll be forced to press a touch more.
That could result in the floodgates opening for the Cityzens. It would be impossible to fade City in any way right now, particularly as it doesn’t have European obligations to worry about at the moment.
I’ll trust manager Pep Guardiola’s squad to be ruthless again at a fair price.
The Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (-110)
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