Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Norwich City vs. Everton Betting Preview (Jan. 15)
Naomi Baker/Getty Images. Pictured: Richarlison.
Norwich City vs. Everton Odds
|Norwich City Odds||+280|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+110 / -135)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Already deep in their own relegation troubles, Norwich City just might pull Everton into the fray if they can manage a rare home win Saturday.
Everton are currently eight points clear of the drop zone, and nine in front of last-place Norwich. But that gap would shrink to no more than six points with a Canaries victory over the Toffees at Carrow Road.
The visitors have only won once in the league since the start of October, and only played two league fixtures in the last month due to COVID-19 related postponements.
But there’s not a lot in the recent form sheet to suggest a Norwich revival either, with Saturday’s hosts losing their last six in the league while being outscored 16-0.
Everton won the previous meeting 2-0 at Goodison Park on Sept. 25.
Norwich City Looks To Break Losing Streak
The Canaries will welcome two players back from absences Saturday that were intended to be substantive parts of their attack.
So far, it hasn’t panned out that way.
Todd Cantwell returns after missing three games across all competitions due to illness, but the midfielder/forward has combined to create 0.2 expected goals and 0.2 expected assists.
American striker Josh Sargent has been fractionally better in terms of finding dangerous spots with 1.6 expected goals this season.
But neither player has managed to score or assist a Canaries goal this season, despite 15 combined starts and 25 combined appearances.
Teemu Pukki remains a proven scorer at any level, with a team-leading five goals.
But the 31-year-old Finish international may be getting run into the ground after starting 19 of Norwich’s 20 games and playing 91% of the Canaries’ total minutes.
He’s without a goal in Norwich’s losing streak, creating just 0.5 xG and failing to register a shot in his last three appearances.
Unlike Everton, which saw its midweek fixture against Leicester City postponed, Norwich have to manage a short turnaround after a 2-0 loss to West Ham in London in midweek.
Everton Finally Approaching Full Fitness
The Toffees’ home win over Norwich marked their only shutout victory at Goodison Park this season, and it was one of only three Premier League games that saw them score the first goal.
But the steady stream of recent postponements hasn’t been all bad for manager Rafa Benitez.
The Spaniard has managed an injury list longer than most for much of the last two months.
And the respite has seen his side finally approach something closer to full fitness this week, with influential attacker Richarlison and center back Yerry Mina both returning to training.
It’s a tiny sample that comes mostly against beatable opposition, but the Toffees have earned seven points from nine in the three games Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison have played together.
Analytically speaking, the Toffees have played perhaps slightly better than their 15th-place position indicates.
Their expected goals (xG) difference of -4.4 is 13th in the EPL, and their place in the table owes at least a little to matches in hand after postponements.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Everton haven’t played well of late, but their injury struggles have to be taken into account.
They’re healthier now, if not universally match fit. And even though they might be closer to the bottom of the table than the top of it, they’re unlikely to look at their trip to Carrow Road as a place where one point would be satisfying.
The return of Sargent and Caldwell doesn’t exactly mean the cavalry has arrived for Norwich.
But they will also look at Everton’s recent defensive record and believe this might be a game where they can finally snap their scoreless run. The return of Yerry Mina alone won’t suddenly make the Toffees’ back line formidable.
As for advanced metrics, teams have combined for 2.51 xG in 19 games between Norwich’s 10 home contests and Everton’s nine away in the Premier League. The total has gone over 2.5 goals in 11 of those games.
That’s enough for me to play the over at +110 at an implied 47.6% probability, though I wouldn’t go much lower.
If the price rises, another direction to consider is Everton -1.5 goals on the spread at +340 odds and an implied 22.7% probability.
The Toffees aren’t good value on the money line. But their propensity for counterattacking could spell trouble for the Canaries if they do get a lead. All but one of Everton’s five wins has come by multiple goals.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+110)