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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Can Harry Kane, Tottenham Get Past Southampton?

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Can Harry Kane, Tottenham Get Past Southampton? article feature image

Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham star Harry Kane.

  • Tottenham hosts Southampton in Wednesday's Premier League match.
  • Striker Harry Kane and Spurs are heavy -165 ML favorites against the Saints in what should be an exciting contest.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the contest below and explains why he's expecting plenty of goals.

Spurs vs. Southampton Odds

Spurs Odds -165
Southampton Odds +475
Draw +310
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton return to Premier League action for the first time since Jan. 23 on Wednesday in a featured midweek showdown at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Spurs have been one of the best teams in the league since Antonio Conte was hired as manager in November, but they suffered their first league defeat last league match in a 2-0 loss at Chelsea. Tottenham returned from the January break in the FA Cup last weekend with an impressive 3-1 home victory against Brighton & Hove Albion and will now look to begin the top-four charge in the home stretch of the EPL season.

The Saints struggled to begin the season, but have continued to be a difficult team for the league’s elite to beat. Southampton has taken points off Spurs, Manchester United and twice against Manchester City. The Saints’ defensive pressing style is pretty unique and they were difficult to break down in the second half of the first meeting when they played to a 1-1 draw despite being up a man the entire second half.

Both teams have underperformed their expected-goals numbers in terms of finishing this year and the way the last game played out, I expect there to be plenty of goals in the reverse fixture.

Spurs Pick Up Juventus Pair During Window

Tottenham made two new signings in the January transfer window to bolster its attack and midfield via the additions of Dejan Kulusevski and Rodrigo Bentancur from Serie A side Juventus.

Spurs loaned out Tanguy Ndombele, Giovani Lo Celso and Dele Alli, who were three midfielders that had a lot of creativity and attacking prowess but had fallen out of favor at the club due to form, injuries and Conte.

However, nothing has been more important to Spurs than the improved play of star striker Harry Kane. He looked slow and failed to produce the shot numbers he’s accustomed to having early in the season under Nuno Espírito Santo, but his numbers have had a sharp uptick in the last few months.

Since Conte became manager in early November, Spurs have averaged 1.89 xG per 90 minutes at even 11-on-11, which discounts the two games they played more than a half up a man. Tottenham ranks third in the league overall in this, but has not taken its chances at all. That’s in part because Kane is in the worst finishing slump of his entire career.

Kane has consistently been a solid xG overperformer as a striker since he’s been at Spurs, but he has just five league goals from nine xG this season. Despite creating 1.89 xG per 90 minutes since Conte took over, Tottenham has only scored 1.27 goals per 90 minutes.

There’s positive regression coming for this Spurs attack in a big way and Kane may have broken his slump this past Saturday when he scored twice in the win against Brighton. Only Norwich City has underperformed its attacking xG by more than Tottenham in the Premier League this year and at some point, the club is going to break out.

Southampton Offense Finally Coming to Life

At one point, the Saints were one of the biggest under-performers based on finishing variance in the entire league, but that’s no longer true after their recent run of hot finishing. Southampton scored 10 league goals in four games from four xG prior to the 3-1 loss to Wolves and 1-1 draw with Manchester City.

That brought their season long numbers right back in line with the mean over the course of the year, but that hot finishing run in attack has masked a considerable drop off in defensive quality of late.

Southampton conceded 2.3 xG to Wolves, the most they’ve produced in a game all season. They’ve only kept one of their last 10 opponents at less than one xG in the match and that was a home spot against a Brentford attack that has been awful on the road against everyone.

The Saints were largely the better side in the first half hour against Spurs and produced a deserved lead, but I had question marks about their ability to press intensely without leaving openings in behind. And that’s exactly what led to the Tottenham goal and red card.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Southampton is just 14th in xGA away from home in the EPL and there’s a risk of the club getting hit over the top, thus allowing Tottenham in behind multiple times in this match. When the Saints have struggled against Spurs in the last two years, it has usually come from the ability possessed by Kane and Son Heung-min, including passing range to spring one another.

Now that Tottenham has improved passing range from center back with Cristian Romero having returned, I’m expecting it to get in behind a few times and create big scoring chances. The Saints rank third worst in the league in conceding big scoring chances because of that press and Spurs could and should expose them when they overcommit.

My projection for this match has 2.81 goals. So, when you add in the positive regression coming for Tottenham in the finishing department, I’d play the small edge on the total over 2.75 goals via the Asian numbers at -110 or better.

Pick: Total Over 2.75 Goals (-105)

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