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Sunday Premier League Updated Odds, Picks & Prediction: West Ham United vs. Manchester City Betting Preview

Sunday Premier League Updated Odds, Picks & Prediction: West Ham United vs. Manchester City Betting Preview article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout Erling Haaland.

West Ham vs. Man City Odds

West Ham Odds +750
Man City Odds -275
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +125)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Saturday evening via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Manchester City, which has won of four of the last five Premier League titles, travels to London on Sunday to begin its new season with its showdown against West Ham United.

The Hammers put together a solid 2021-22 campaign, finishing seventh in the table. That comes a season after manager David Moyes led the hosts to sixth place in the English top flight.

Last year, both teams got a result in this head-to-head clash on home soil. Manchester City earned a 2-1 win at Etihad Stadium before dropping points in a 2-2 draw with West Ham at the London Stadium.

West Ham United

Last season, West Ham was a solid, yet lucky side.

For the season, the Hammers finished with a +9 goal differential, but a -1.1 expected-goal differential overall. The good news? A lot of that luck can be attributed to its road performances. In 19 such fixtures, West Ham had a +2 goal differential on a -7.3 xGDiff, per fbref.com.

At home, the Hammers were much more reliable. In those 19 matches, they finished with a +7 goal differential against a +6.2 xGDiff in the process. Perhaps most impressively, West Ham earned results against all four Champions League finishers at the London Stadium.

Home matches against the Big Six also proved fairly thrilling, with five of six of them clearing 2.5 goals and three of six outings surpassing 3.5 goals.

By The Numbers

  • 74 — Percentage of home matches West Ham earned a point in the last two seasons.
  • 1.45 — Expected goals per 90 minutes created by the Hammers at London Stadium last season.
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Manchester City

Only two teams proved up to the task of handing Manchester City an outright defeat last season. Just in the last two seasons, manager Pep Guardiola’s side has lost only nine EPL matches as well.

Guardiola’s latest squad will be headlined by new signing Erling Haaland, which the Cityzens acquired from German stalwart Borussia Dortmund earlier this summer. Additionally, Man City bolstered its midfield through the purchase of Kalvin Phillips from Leeds United.

The Cityzens arrive at this fixture on a 12-match domestic unbeaten run dating back to last season. Just in those 12 matches, Man City produced a +20.7 xGDiff on a +27 goal differential, per fbref.com.  Additionally, its attack created 2.4 xG/90 minutes, which was slightly up (2.35) from a season-long average.

By The Numbers

  • 27.2 — Expected goals from Man City last season, which was the best total in the Premier League.
  • 2.03 — Total xG per 90 minutes against sides that finished second to seventh in the league table.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I want to respect West Ham’s home record against the league’s best, so I’m focusing on the total for this opening match.

Just in 12 games against the six sides behind it in the table, Man City scored at least twice in nine of them. However, it simultaneously only kept four clean sheets in those 12 fixtures.

On the flip side, the Hammers failed to score in exactly zero home tilts last season. And over the course of the last two seasons, it has failed to score at home only three times. With all of its attackers fresh, expect West Ham to at least notch one goal.

However, this is also a defense that allowed 1.91 xG per 90 minutes in matches against the Big Six last season.

The Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (-105) 

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