Arsenal at Tottenham Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Sunday’s Premier League Soccer Match

Arsenal at Tottenham Odds & Pick

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The North London Derby is known as one of the fiercest and most competitive rivalries in all of England. Arsenal and Tottenham will meet for the 200th time on Sunday at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Spurs and Arsenal have been in competition for the top four Champions League places for most of the past decade, but both clubs have struggled with form this year. Arsenal enters the derby in eighth, Tottenham in 10th, both basically out of reach for a Champions League place.

But while Arsenal have started to turn their form around with the appointment of Mikel Arteta as manager, and the Gunners have played well since the restart, Tottenham is in free fall. Arsenal had won three consecutive matches by an 8-0 aggregate score and was headed toward a crucial 1-0 win vs. Leicester City before they went down to 10 men and were pegged back, settling for a 1-1 draw.

Spurs have played five matches since the restart, winning twice, drawing twice and losing once. While that doesn’t sound particularly terrible, it’s been the decline in performances that have been most troubling.

Since Spurs' 2-0 win against West Ham, where striker Harry Kane looked lively and Tottenham’s defense was sturdy, they’ve played three matches. They’ve scored two goals (one own goal) on 2.01 xG, and conceded three on 2.9 xGA in games against Sheffield United, Everton and Bournemouth.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Tottenham have consistently put in mid-table performances all season, and even at home, where their results are solid, their actual football has been dire. Only three teams have allowed more xG at home since Jan. 1 than Spurs (12.05 xGA in seven matches).

Going forward, Harry Kane looked lively in matches against West Ham and Sheffield United since returning from injury during the layoff. However, he hasn’t been rotated at all and looked worn down for most of the match against Bournemouth on Thursday.

Spurs are playing their third match in six days with a striker who they rely heavily on and is clearly not ready to play that many minutes. While Kane was leading the Premier League since the restart in xG after three matches, he’s attempted three shots in the last two matches (one inside the penalty area).

Arsenal haven’t won a match at Tottenham since 2014, losing three and drawing two. But this is the worst Spurs team in a North London Derby over that span. Arsenal have conceded just one goal in four matches, once going down to 10 men on Wednesday vs. Leicester.

According to Understat’s metrics, since the Gunners have switched to a back three, their defense has improved significantly. In 282 minutes in this formation, the Gunners have allowed just 0.86 xGA per 90 minutes compared to 1.43 xGA per 90 over the entire season.

In six matches since the restart, both Spurs and Arsenal have conceded just three big scoring chances each. Only Manchester United and Wolves have allowed fewer.

The Gunners were able to stifle the attacks of Southampton, Wolves and Leicester City, all better than Tottenham going forward. I still have questions about the Gunners going forward and where the chance creation will come from outside of top scorer Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

But the Gunners have steadied their defensive woes and for that reason, I trust them more than Spurs in a game that will be low scoring. If either team does grab a lead, both teams lack the firepower to launch much of a comeback.