Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Brighton vs. Manchester United (Saturday, Sept. 26)

Brighton vs. Manchester United Odds

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Manchester United will try and turn things around against Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday after a horrific performance against Crystal Palace on opening weekend. The Red Devils are favorites to finish inside the top four this year, and losing back-to-back games against teams that finished in bottom half of the table last season will cause some panic in Northwest England. Brighton, on the other hand, looked fantastic against Newcastle last Sunday, easily winning 3-0 on the road. We'll see if they will be able to repeat that kind of performance against one of the best teams in England.

Brighton

The 2019-20 campaign was a difficult one for the Seagulls. They finished in 15th place with a -13 expected goal differential, which ranked near the bottom of the Premier League. They were especially bad after the restart defensively, allowing 1.76 xG per match. Brighton made a few additions over the offseason, but nothing that is of note or would improve their shaky defense.

Brighton really struggled against the top of table last season, earning only one point in eight matches against the top four. In those eight matches they were throughly dominated losing by a combined score of 23-4. Included in those matches were two losses to Manchester United by a combined score of 6-1.

The Seagulls have been impressive in their first two matches of the season, winning the expected goals battle against both Chelsea and Newcastle. However, Manchester United will be a different animal on Saturday.

Manchester United 

Despite their opening loss to Crystal Palace, Manchester United is still one of the best teams in England.

The Red Devils were the second-best team in terms of expected points (18.89) during the restart last season. The reason for that was the emergence of Bruno Fernandes, who scored six goals and dealt out four assists in only nine appearances.

For most of the season Paul Pogba and Fernandes weren’t able to play alongside each other due to injury, and the restart showed us how good United can be with those two in the middle of their 4-2-3-1 formation.

The Red Devils added depth to their midfield this offseason in the form of Donny van de Beek. The talented Dutchman starred in his time at Ajax, scoring 66 goals and providing 55 assists in 251 appearances. He should fit really well into United’s 4-2-3-1 system.

There are no real concerns for United defensively, either, as they only allowed 1.00 expected goals per game (third in the Premier League) last season. They also were able to hold on to their entire defensive unit over the offseason.

Even though the loss to Crystal Palace looks really bad, I think United will be able to rebound and get back to the form we saw during the restart.

Projections and Pick

Manchester United cruised to a 3-0 victory when these two teams met three months ago at American Express Stadium. The Red Devils closed as -195 favorites in that match, but somehow are only -125 favorites on Saturday. I think Manchester United is undervalued at the -125 price so I am going to back them to get their first win of the season. However, I would only play that number up to -132.

The Pick: Manchester United -127

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