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Sunday Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: West Ham Overvalued in EPL Match vs. Burnley

Sunday Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: West Ham Overvalued in EPL Match vs. Burnley article feature image
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Dave Howarth – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Mee.

  • West Ham United journeys to Turf Moor on Sunday to face Burnley in a Premier League matchup.
  • The Hammers and Clarets are at opposite ends in the table, but this could be a pretty even contest.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the meeting below and details why he finds value on Burnley to get a result.

Burnley vs. West Ham Odds

Burnley Odds +265
West Ham Odds +100
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / +105)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

West Ham United scored a late winner to pull off the comeback upset of London rival Chelsea at home last week. The win vaulted them back into the top four of the Premier League, but the Hammers now face a difficult road match Sunday against Burnley at Turf Moor.

Wets Ham might have won the game, but lost starting center back Kurt Zouma to injury and is now dangerously thin at the position. Given Burnley’s aerial prowess, it’s a difficult team to play without multiple key players.

The Clarets have had a mixed bag of results of late, including a draw with Chelsea and Wolves. However, they’re loss to Newcastle United last weekend  leaves them in the thick of the relegation battle.

Burnley Tough to Take Down at Turf Moor

Many players and managers have remarked that an away trip to Burnley is one of the more difficult fixtures on the league schedule, even if the club rarely ranks among the good or even average teams in the league. The Clarets made a habit out of being a difficult defense to break down, sitting in their 4-4-2 defensive formation and always being excellent on set pieces.

Only three teams in the league have a worse expected goal differential then them thus far and it appears they’ll likely be in the relegation scrap come the spring.

That being said, a look at their performances and results at home suggest they’ve been quite difficult to beat, even when facing more talented teams. Burnley lost to Arsenal at home early in the season but won the expected goals battle. They beat Brentford, 3-1, on home soil in one of their most dominant performances of the year.

The Clarets were unfortunate to not get more from their home draws with both Norwich City and Crystal Palace as well. Burnley have only conceded 7.1 expected goals, in six home matches this year.

As bad as the Clarets have been on the road, their xGDiff at home per 90 minute ranks ninth best in the English top flight.

West Ham Finding Luck in Front of Goal

The Hammers’ chances of a legitimate top-four challenge always banked on the health of their relatively thin squad, compared to their competitors. Competing both in Europe and on domestic France has proven to be a difficult challenge for them, even though they’ve been winning, because they are now down two of their main center backs and potentially left back Aaron Cresswell.

The wins against Liverpool and Chelsea were impressive, but the Hammers also are running quite a bit hot in front of goal in terms of their finishing. West Ham has scored 28 goals from 21.7 xG, which is well above the numbers you expect them to have and it’s inflating the club’s position in the league.

We saw after the upset win against Liverpool that the Hammers came out flat on the road against a difficult defensive side. They lost that match to Wolves, 1-0, and face a similarly conservative outfit in this matchup.

One of West Ham‘s biggest strengths comes on attacking set pieces and an ability to win aerial duels. Against Burnley, The Clarets have an excellent set piece record at both ends of the pitch and tend to win a lot of balls in the air. While West Ham will have most of the possession here, they are vulnerable without Zouma and Angelo Ogbonna.

Betting Analysis & Pick

West Ham just beat expected title contender Chelsea last week and is now clearly overvalued in the market following that impressive result. The loss of the two center backs is not properly being priced into the market, and the Hammers will be vulnerable on defensive side pieces without them.

My projections make West Ham just +130 favorites to win this match and I see value on the Burnley to get at least a point at even money.

The Clarets are the side more desperate for points, and you’ve got a great chance to buy low on them after a poor away display against Newcastle last week. Burnley should be better at home and avoid defeat.

Pick: Burnley +0.5 (-120 or better)

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