Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Everton Is a Massive Value vs. Aston Villa

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Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Jack Grealish

  • Aston Villa is four points from relegation safety with three matches left, so the Villans really need a win today vs. Everton, who is favored to win.
  • Everton has a huge difference between its actual goal differential (-11) and expected goal differential (+4.63), which suggests the Toffees could be undervalued by the betting market.
  • See my favorite bet for this match and why I think the home team is drastically undervalued.

Aston Villa at Everton Odds, Picks

Aston Villa odds +250 [BET NOW]
Everton odds +110 [BET NOW]
Draw +250 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-106/-118) [BET NOW]
Time Thursday 1 p.m. ET
TV NBC Sports Gold/Peacock

Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Aston Villa’s fight to stay in the Premier League resumes with a match against Everton at Goodison Park on Thursday. The Villans are four points from safety with three matches left, so anything other than a win against Everton could be curtains for Villa.

A win for Villa could put them on a path to a win-and-stay-up match with West Ham in their season finale. Everton, meanwhile, have nothing to play for in this match, though they will want to snap out of their recent funk.

Everton

The Toffees have been in interesting form since the restart, earning eight of a possible 18 points and sporting a -3.93 expected goals differential (5.05 xGF, 8.98 xGA) in their last six matches. However, most of their bad performances have come on the road.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


The Toffees are really unlucky to have a -11 goal differential this season. The difference between their actual results and their expected goals is quite astounding:

Goals For 41
Expected Goals For 50.39
Goals Against 52
Expected Goals Against 45.76
Goal Differential -11
Expected Goal Differential 4.63

Even though Everton have struggled to generate scoring chances lately, they have made a habit of putting up crooked numbers against bad teams at Goodison Park. The Toffees create 1.79 expected goals per match in seven home games against the teams below them in the table.

Everton should be able to rebound from a couple bad performances going up against the Premier League’s worst defense.

Aston Villa

It’s desperation time for Aston Villa, who need points right now if they want to avoid falling back into the Championship. Even though they only have one win in seven matches, the Villans have improved big time since the Premier League returned and actually have a positive expected goal differential (8.01 xGF, 7.79 xGA) during Project Restart.

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Aston Villa got their first win in 172 calendar days on Sunday by beating Crystal Palace, 2-0. Before that victory, the Lions lost seven of their last nine matches and were outscored, 17-5, along the way.

Aston Villa are the league’s worst defensive team on the road this season. Villa concedes an average 2.13 xG per match and generates just 1.1 xG for. They will need to drastically improve their road form if they want to get a result at Goodison Park.

Analysis

Everton opened as a -121 favorite in this match, but the Blues have quickly dropped to +107, likely due to their recent performances and the fact that Villa has a lot more to play for in this match.

I think the Toffees are drastically undervalued at home:

  • Everton projected odds: -196 (66.19% win probability)
  • Aston Villa projected odds: +615 (13.99%)
  • Draw projected odds: +405 (19.82%)
  • Everton projected xG: 2.11
  • Aston Villa projected xG: 0.91
Pick: Everton +107

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