Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tottenham vs. West Ham (Sunday, Oct. 18)

Tottenham vs. West Ham Odds

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Two London rivals will meet on Sunday when West Ham travels to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

The headlines will be about Gareth Bale making his second debut for Tottenham, which he is set to make after rejoining the club on loan from Real Madrid. The real story will be how Tottenham's high-flying attack from before the international break will fare against a West Ham side that is also on an impressive run of form.

Tottenham

Spurs are a team that I typically ended up fading more often than not last season, when their underlying xG performances were much worse than the results they were getting. However, since a dreadful performance against Everton to open the new season, Spurs have been flying.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Bolstered by multiple summer signings that have improved their starting XI and a rejuvenated Harry Kane leading the frontline, Spurs have gone from a middling side to one that looks like it will be competing among the Premier League's best this season. Tottenham currently leads the league in non-penalty expected goal difference.

Spurs have generated 8.77 xG from their last three league matches, of which they won two and drew one. They’ve scored 12 goals in those three games, part of the historically good finishing run of form that most of the league is also on to begin the season. Regression is coming in the goal department, as the level of finishing in the league is unsustainable at this point.

I’ll be looking to play some Tottenham unders in the future, but this is not the game to be playing an under. I project 3.1 goals in this match, so a pass on the total from me. I am concerned about Spurs' defense, which has been prone to give away bad penalties and can be opened up by good counter-attacking teams.

West Ham

Both sides have been in excellent form since the league restarts in June to finish the 2019-20 season. After losing their first game of the new season, the Hammers' last three games have been very encouraging.

After losing away from home to Arsenal, West Ham delivered a 4-0 win over Wolves before going to Leicester and securing a well-deserved 3-0 victory over Leicester City.

West Ham ranks fourth in non-penalty expected goal difference this season thanks to a good run of form, which has been powered by a pair of signings from last January and a new center forward. Since Jared Bowen and Tomas Soucek became regular starters and Michail Antonio was installed as the lead striker, the Hammers have been transformed in attack. West Ham have generated 7.15 xG in their last three matches.

Defensively, West Ham have kept two clean sheets and allowed just one opposition shot from inside the six-yard box over the past three matches.

Tottenham-West Ham pick

According to my numbers, if you can find a “both teams to score” at -150 or better that’s worth a bet. But my numbers suggest that Tottenham is a bit overvalued in this spot at -167, as I make them -130 favorites. I’ll take West Ham with the goal here and bank on a close back-and-forth match.

The PICK: West Ham +1 (-121)

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