Saturday Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fulham vs. West Ham (Nov. 7)

West Ham vs. Fulham Odds

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Two bottom-half London clubs are set to clash on Saturday afternoon, as Fulham makes the short trip across the capitol to take on West Ham.

The Hammers have played a gauntlet of top teams to start the season in Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Tottenham, Wolves and Leicester City. The Hammers escaped those matches with eight points and enter a more favorable part of the schedule on Saturday.

Fulham secured their first win back in the Premier League against fellow promoted side West Brom. They will be in the relegation battle all season, so Saturday’s match is very important for the Cottagers in their battle to eventually secure Premier League survival.

West Ham

The 2019-20 campaign was a difficult one for the Hammers, who finished in 16th. However, they had a strong start to their season despite the difficult schedule, as they have a +1.99 expected goal difference (xGD).

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

So far this season, West Ham has drastically improved its attack, averaging 1.43 xG through its first seven matches. However, what has plagued the Hammers over the past two years has been their defense. Last season, West Ham allowed the third-most expected goals per match at 1.80. So far in this campaign, they’ve improved without any major upgrades to their defense, although the similar personnel makes it hard to imagine they’ll improve as the season goes along.

West Ham matches at the London Stadium typically have featured a lot of goals over the last two years. On average, a total of 2.94 expected goals are scored in their matches at home, which has led to 55% of their matches going over 2.5 goals. Their offense shouldn’t have any issues against Fulham’s defense, which has been one of the worst in the Premier League so far this season.

Fulham

The campaign has gotten off to a disastrous start for the Cottagers. They have lost five of their first seven matches and have allowed the second-most goals in the league so far this season.

For a team like Fulham, which allowed 1.30 xG per match in the Championship, is projected to allow more than two xG per match this season, which we are already seeing it trend toward, as they’ve allowed 1.64 xG so far this season.

Offensively, the club has struggled to generate quality chances, as it has the third lowest xGF in the league. The Cottagers added winger Ademola Lookman from RB Leipzig at the transfer deadline, which has helped their attack over the last three matches, during which they are averaging 1.46 xG per match.

West Ham-Fulham Pick

With how suspect both of these defenses are, I think we will see a ton of goals in this match. This will be the weakest defense West Ham has faced this season, so if they score first, we will see a very open match with a ton of scoring chances.

I have the total projected at 3.00, so I think there is value in taking Over 3 goals at +145 (DraftKings).

Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (+145)

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