Wolves vs. Everton Odds, Pick, Betting Prediction: Total Has Value in Premier League Primetime Clash

Wolves vs. Everton Odds

Wolverhampton Wanderers look to continue ascending up the Premier League table when they host Everton on Monday at 4 p.m. ET.

Wolves could not buy a finish to start the season but have regressed in a positive way over the last month, winning four straight matches. Most recently, only Rodrigo's stoppage-time penalty prevented a fourth consecutive win in a 1-1 road draw against Leeds United.

Everton's injuries and defensive shortcomings have finally started to show up in its results. Last time out, lowly Watford scored four times in the final 15 minutes of a 5-2 win over the Toffees at their home stadium of Goodison Park.

Everton would pull into a four-way tie for fourth place in the Premier League on points with an away victory. On the other side, Wolves would go in front of seventh-place Brighton on goal difference with a home win.

Frustration Continues to Haunt Wolves

Perhaps no side had a more frustrating beginning to the season than a club that was many peoples' dark horse to contend for a European place this season.

Wolves only had three points to show from their first four matches despite leading opponents in expected goals by 6.5-3.2 margin, and that happened despite only conceding three times.

From there it got even worse with a surprising home defeat to Brentford that the visitors thoroughly deserved.

However, Wolves responded to score seven goals in the next four matches, while taking 10 of 12 possible points.

Hwang Hee-chan has been the primary force leading the resurgence, scoring three of his four goals in the last two matches. He's nearly undroppable for manager Bruno Lage after playing his way into the starting XI with strong bench performances in August and September.

Raul Jimenez has yet to recapture his former goal-scoring form as he approaches a year since suffering that scary facial injury in November of 2020. Yet, he does seem to be forstering a good relationship with Hwang, assisting both goals in a 2-1 win over Newcastle United.

Richarlison Healthy Again for Everton

Richarlison was the lone player to return from the Toffees' lengthy injury list against Watford, entering in the second half and scoring what appeared a crucial goal.

After it all unraveled following that point, manager Rafa Benitez could be tempted to push the influential Brazilian much further against Wolves.

And although Benitez admitted Sunday that Richarlison is still not at full fitness, the nine days between games could help stretch him well beyond the 31 minutes he played against Watford.

If he can't, Everton will need more from Demarai Gray, who has three goals this season, but hasn't found the net in his last six appearances across all competitions.

Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin, midfielder Abdoulaye Doucoure and center back Yerry Mina are among those expected to remain out for the trip to the Midlands.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The injury reports suggest Wolves are the better team right now, as do the advanced analytics.

The table might not, but much of Everton's success in that arena came early when Calvert-Lewin, Doucoure, Mina and others were available.

As such, the three-way line is about right. After a bright start, home sides are down to a 36% win rate overall. So, the implied probability of a Wolves victory at 44.4% for +125 odds seems reasonable and not particularly high value.

Where I see opportunity here is in the total. Wolves' home games and Everton's away fixtures have both averaged nearly exactly 2.5 combined xG per match.

That suggests this match is equally as likely to go over as under. So I'm playing the over at +125 odds and an implied 44.4% probability, especially now that Hwang and Wolves have found their finishing boots.

Pick: Total Goals Over 2.5 (+125)