Projected Odds and Totals for Every Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A, and Ligue 1 Match This Weekend (Oct. 23-26)
Matthew Peters/Manchester United via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Pogba
The return of club football after the international break saw a whole a lot of upsets and intrigue:
- Liverpool were denied a late winner against Everton by a questionable VAR decision.
- Chelsea and Tottenham both blew huge leads at home to Southampton and West Ham, respectively.
- Manchester City asserted their dominance once again over Arsenal.
- Both Barcelona and Real Madrid were upset in La Liga by Getafe and Cadiz, respectively.
- AC Milan finally beat Inter Milan for the first time in two years.
- Napoli routed previously undefeated Atalanta, 4-1, at home with all four goals coming in first half.
- Juventus were only able to muster a draw at newly-promoted side Crotone.
This weekend’s slate features some tantalizing matches, but domestic leagues are in a sandwich spot. With Champions League and Europa League in action this week and next, a lot of teams in those competitions will have to manage their squads this weekend. Therefore, it may be a good idea to wait until starting lineups come out before heading to the window.
You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.
If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.
Note: These projections do not take into account injuries. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team’s starting XI.
Premier League Notes
- Manchester United vs. Chelsea: The Red Devils are flying high after back-to-back away wins against Newcastle in the Premier League and PSG in the Champions League. Even though they have a Champions League fixture next Wednesday against RB Leipzig, United have to give this match their full attention because they currently sit in 15th place in the Premier League. Chelsea blew a two-goal lead against Southampton over the weekend and then were involved in a 0-0 snooze-fest against Sevilla in the Champions League. They have to travel to Russia next week to face Krasnodar, so it’ll be interesting to see how Frank Lampard selects his squad for this match.
- Arsenal vs. Leicester: The Gunners have won every match they were suppose to up to this point in the season, but they have a negative expected goal differential to start the season. The Foxes will be trying to rebound after two straight home losses to West Ham and Aston Villa. Leicester are currently dealing with a lot of injuries, so this is a prime opportunity for Arsenal in their quest to get back into the top four.
Premier League Injury News:
- Burnley: Jack Cork (CM) and Ben Mee (CB) are both doubtful to play against Tottenham.
- Crystal Palace: Jordan Ayew (ST) is out due to a positive COVID test and Gary Cahill (CB) is questionable to face Fulham.
- Everton: Richarlison (LW) and Seamus Coleman (RB) are both out against Southampton.
- Leicester: Wilfred Ndidi (CM), Caglar Soyuncu (CB), and Daniel Armartey (CM) are all out and Jamie Vardy (ST) is questionable to face Arsenal.
- Liverpool: Virgil Van Dijk (CB) and Alisson (GK) are out. Thiago (CM), Naby Keita (CM), and Joel Matip (CB) are all questionable to face Sheffield United.
- Manchester City: Gabriel Jesus (ST), Kevin De Bruyne (CM), Benjamin Mendy (LB), and Aymeric Laporte (CB) are all doubtful for Saturday versus West Ham.
- Manchester United: Harry Maguire (CB) and Jesse Lingard (RW) are both questionable to face Chelsea.
- Newcastle: Allan Saint-Maximin (LW) is probable to face Manchester United.
- Sheffield United: Lys Mousset (ST) is out for the next few weeks after having a procedure to repair a ligament in his toe.
- Tottenham: Giovani Lo Celso (CM), Eric Dier (CM), and Erik Lamela (RW) are all questionable to face Burnley.
- West Ham: Michail Antonio (ST) and Sebastian Haller (ST) are both questionable to face Manchester City.
- Bayern Munich vs. Frankfurt: The defending champions will try to keep their good run of form going at the Allianz Arena, as they’ve won their last eight matches at home. Frankfurt upset Bayern 5-1 last season and are unbeaten in their last six road games in the Bundesliga.
- Dortmund vs. Schalke: The Rivierderby will be a little more lopsided than in year’s past. Dortmund will likely won’t field a full strength starting XI after losing to Lazio in the Champions League on Tuesday. Schalke has lost their first two matches on the road by a combined score of 12-0.
Bundesliga Injury News:
- Bayern Munich: Leroy Sane (LW), Joshua Kimmich, and Serge Gnarby (LM) are all out against Frankfurt.
- Leverkusen: Patrik Schick (ST) is questionable to face Augsburg with a muscle injury.
- Dortmund: Thorgan Hazard (LW) is questionable to face Schalke with a hamstring injury.
- Gladbach: Denis Zakaria (CDM) is questionable to face Mainz with a knee injury.
- Frankfurt: Filip Kostic (LM) is out with a knee injury against Bayern Munich.
- Freibrug: Janik Haberer (CM) is questionable to face Werder Bremen with an ankle injury.
- Hertha Berlin: Jordan Torunaigha (CB) is questionable and Matteo Guendouzi (CM) is out against RB Leipzig .
- Hoffenheim: Andrej Kramaric (ST), Paval Kaderbek (RB), and Benjamin Hubner (CB) are all questionable, while Havard Nordveit (CB) is out versus Werder Bremen.
- Schalke 04: Suat Serder (CM) are is questionable to face Dortmund.
- Wolfsburg: Paulo Otavio (LB) is out versus Arminia Bielefeld.
Serie A Notes:
- AC Milan vs. Roma: AC Milan are the early leaders in the clubhouse in Serie A after beating their rivals last weekend. They’re averaging 2.52 xG per match, which leads Serie A. Roma is the second-highest scoring team at 2.39 xG per match.
Serie A Injury News
- Bologna: Andrea Poli (CM), Gary Medel (CM), and Lorenzo Di Silvestri (RB) are all out against Lazio.
- Genoa: Team has been hit by a COVID-19 outbreak and has 7 players questionable to face Inter.
- Inter: Ashley Young (LM), Alessandro Bastoni (CB), and Milan Skriniar (CB) are all questionable to face AC Milan due to COVID-19 related issues.
- Juventus: Matthijs de Ligt (CB), Cristiano Ronaldo, (CF), Weston McKinnie (CM), and Alex Sandro (LB) are all questionable. Federico Chiesa (LM) and Adrian Rabiot are both out against Verona.
- Parma: Four players have tested positive for COVID and are questionable to face Spezia.
- Napoli: Lorenzo Insigne (LW) and Pitor Zielinski (CM) are both questionable to face Benevento.
- Sampdoria: Maolo Gabbiadini (CAM) is out against Atalanta.
- Udinese: Juan Musso (GK) is out until late December with a knee injury.
La Liga Notes:
- Barcelona vs. Real Madrid: The first iteration of El Clasico will happen Saturday morning at 10 a.m. ET. This one is interesting due to the fact that both clubs were upset in their last match in La Liga and because they’re in a sandwich spot due to the Champions League schedule. Barcelona has dominated this rivalry over the past few years, as Real Madrid has only beat them once in their last eight meetings.
La Liga Injury News:
- Athletic Bilbao: Yuri Berchiche (LB) is questionable to face Osasuna due to COVID-19 related issues.
- Atletico Madrid: Sime Vrsaljko (RB), Jose Gimenez (CB), and Diego Costa (ST) are all out versus Real Betis.
- Barcelona: Jordi Alba (LB) and Marc-Andre ter Stegen (GK) are both questionable vs. Real Madrid.
- Celta Vigo: Hugo Mallo (RB) and Ruben Blanco (GK) are both out versus Levante.
- Real Madrid: Eden Hazard (LW), Daniel Caravajal (RB), Martin Odegaard (CAM) are all out and Sergio Ramos (CB) and Marcelo (LB) are both questionable to face Barcelona.
- Villarreal: Gerard Moreno (ST), Daniel Parejo (CM), and Alberto Moreno (LB) are all doubtful to face Cadiz.
Ligue 1 Notes:
- Nice vs. Lille: Lille are the early leaders in Ligue 1. They hold a two point advantage over PSG. Nice currently sits in fourth place, but they have a -3.49 xGD through their first seven matches.
- Lyon vs. Monaco: Two usual Champions League mainstays are not in a European competition this year, so this match will have their full attention. Lyon is second to only PSG, with 2.53 xGF per match so far this season.
Ligue 1 Injury News
- Dijon: Yassine Benzia (ST) is out versus Nantes.
- Marseille: Dimitri Payet (CAM) is out due to a suspension.
- Monaco: Aleksandr Golovin (CAM) and Fode Ballo (LB) are questionable to play against Lyon.
- Nice: Youcef Atal (RB) is out versus Saint Etienne due to a hamstring injury.
- Nimes: Sidy Sarr (CM) is out against PSG due to a groin injury.
- PSG: Mauro Icardi (ST), Juan Bernat (LB), and Thilo Kehrer (CB) are out. Marquinhos (CB), Marco Verratti (CM), Julian Draxler (CAM), and Danilo Pereira (CM) are questionable to play against Dijon.
- Saint Etienne: Mathieu Debuchy (RB) is out against Metz with a muscle injury.