Champions League Match Preview | PSG vs Newcastle Odds, Prediction
NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Bruno Guimaraes.
PSG vs Newcastle Odds
| PSG Odds | -150 |
| Newcastle Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Newcastle lost both of their matches to Borussia Dortmund in match days three and four in the group of death and now the Magpies face an uphill battle to qualify. Newcastle have four points from four matches and is sitting in last place, but just three points separate them from first place Dortmund as these four teams are all bunched tightly together with two matches to play.
The Magpies' only quality performance in Europe came in the reverse fixture at St. James' Park, when they beat PSG 4-1 on home soil. Their press forced a bunch of high turnovers and enabled them to keep Kylian Mbappé isolated from getting a ton of direct impact on the match.
Newcastle defensively managed to hold Mbappé to just four attacking penalty area touches and four progressive carries of the ball in the entire match. Their ability to replicate that performance on the road is the biggest key to slowing down PSG's attack. It's especially important because Newcastle are almost certainly not going to replicate the attacking results they had in that first matchup.
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PSG
PSG have found their form in Ligue 1 with six consecutive league wins and dominant underlying performances week to week. This comes after the French side dropped points in four of their opening seven matches in the French top flight. Mbappé is producing 5.01 shots per match domestically and has 14 goals scored in 10.8 90s. His numbers are inflated a bit by four made penalties (out of five attempted) but the world's best player is showing why right now in France.
Through four matches in the Champions League, the Parisian side does have the best underlying numbers of the four clubs. They've produced 6.2 xGF and conceded less than 1 xG in three of the four matches. Three of those four matches have gone over the closing total, but the market has moved toward the under in the lead up to the last three matches and the underlying xG data in two of them would support an under as well.
The key injury for PSG is the loss of 17-year old midfielder Warren Zaire-Emery. He's become a mainstay in the PSG midfield under Luis Enrique. His absence gives Newcastle the advantage in the center of the park. PSG have the far-superior attacking quality, but they have to progress the ball into the final third enough for them to take advantage.
A closer look at the reverse fixture shows that Newcastle weren't nearly as dominant in the underlying box score as the final score suggested. PSG had an 87% passing accuracy rate and did manage 20 attacking penalty area touches compared to just 13 for Newcastle. The total shots were 12-11 in favor of Newcastle and the total expected goals were basically dead even.
PSG lost the match because Newcastle had an elite shooting day and turned 0.9 xG into 1.6 post-shot xG. But Gianluigi Donnarumma also had one of the worst shot stopping games of his career and conceded 2.4 more goals than what would be expected of him. There's a ton of variance in a single soccer match and all of the highest leverage moments went the way of Newcastle in that match.
Newcastle
Newcastle ranks in the top four in the EPL in xG difference per 90, which makes their performances in the Champions League even more puzzling. On one hand, the CL is just four matches out of the 17 game sample we have on them this year. It could just be random variance and some lineup affects why Newcastle have been so poor against the top Champions League opponents. It's not as if the Magpies have struggled against top competition domestically — they outplayed Liverpool and Chelsea, competed at City and were even with Arsenal in those matchups.
Eddie Howe's side has taken two trips abroad in the Champions League and not really shown up for either match. Milan and Dortmund were both power-rated lower by the market entering both matches and both out-created Newcastle 3.3-0.9 on xG combined.
Almost none of the squad has any experience playing in the competition, nor do the top brass at the club from a logistical point of view. European club competitions haven't been on the radar for Newcastle in many years, so maybe the longer road trips and extra midweek matches are a potential factor in the struggles in Europe.
PSG vs Newcastle
Prediction
Newcastle were in a bit of an injury crisis prior to the international break, but the Magpies will have Alexander Isak and their first choice midfield available for this match. Joelinton, Sean Longstaff and Bruno Guimaries is excellent out of possession in midfield and their ball winning ability should help to force PSG into a lot of stale and defensive possession. Similar to the reverse fixture, Newcastle's defensive press can shut off easy access for PSG to get the ball to Mbappé.
Unlike the first leg, I don't expect Donnarumma to have such a poor shot stopping day, nor do I expect Newcastle to score four goals from less than 1 xG.
The Parisians commented that they were treating this match like a final, and it's imperative for both clubs not to lose this match. That will make this a low-event affair, and I'm betting both the under and underdog on Tuesday in Paris.
Picks: Newcastle +1 (-118) and Under 3 (-135)
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