Real Madrid vs Napoli Prediction | Champions League Picks
Ciancaphoto/Getty. Pictured: Eljif Elmas.
Real Madrid vs Napoli Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | -120 |
| Napoli Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Real Madrid have already clinched a spot in the Champions League knockout stage, and the Spanish giants need only a draw at home against Napoli on Wednesday to clinch the top spot in Group C. They've won all four matches in the group stage to this point, including the reverse fixture in Naples, 3-2, in match week 2.
The market has steamed significantly toward Napoli, as Real Madrid were as high as -150 on the three-way moneyline for this match a few weeks ago. The injury report continues to trend negatively for Madrid, while Napoli are expected to have top striker Victor Osimhen back in the starting XI for this match. Napoli will be in a pretty solid position to advance regardless of this match, but a road victory would clinch their round of 16 spot on Wednesday with a match to spare.
Here is my Real Madrid vs Napoli prediction.
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Real Madrid
Real Madrid are quite shorthanded in midfield for this match now that Luka Modric has joined Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga on the injured list, and none of them will play for Madrid on Wednesday. Vinicius Junior has also been ruled out for the remainder of the calendar year due to injury, after he was Real Madrid's best player in the reverse fixture.
It's been an up and down year for Vinicius overall, but he had six shots, a goal, nine penalty area touches and a hockey assist for Real Madrid in the victory at Napoli.
We've seen Real Madrid start slow, especially from a defensive perspective, in these spots before. Real Madrid went to Leipzig last season late in the group stage and conceded a ton of early chances before battling their way back into the match and nearly stealing a point.
Napoli
Napoli fired manager Rudi Garcia during the international break and brought in Walter Mazzarri to take over the job. Garcia had failed to replicate the stunning success that Luciano Spalletti had ushered in in the first half of last season, when Napoli dominated both in Serie A and the Champions League. Mazzarri won his first match in charge away against Atalanta on Saturday, 2-1. The most important development is the return of Osimhen. He came off the bench and will be expected to start for Napoli on Wednesday.
He's produced 6.1 xG in 7.2 90s in Serie A this season and has scored six goals and added an assist. He's become a shot monster in the last 2.5 years, averaging 4.33 shots per match this year and at least four per match in each of the last three seasons now. His combination with Kvaratskhelia gives Napoli one of the most dynamic 1-2 attacking punches in Europe. Kvaratskhelia ranks first in successful take-ons in the Champions League. He's also in the top 10 in progressive passes received, progressive dribbles and dribbles into the penalty area.
Real Madrid don't really press the opponents off the ball. They essentially make a bet that their attacking will be able to outscore your attacking talent and that they'll be better in the biggest moments. That's largely been true for Carlo Ancelotti's side, but it makes them quite vulnerable defensively.
Kvaratskhelia carried the ball into the penalty area six times in the first meeting and no player on either team had more attacking third/penalty area touches than the Georgian winger. That enabled Osimhen to tally four shots and 0.5 xG, even though he didn't score. Given the injury crisis at Real Madrid, Napoli's attack should get plenty of opportunities.
Real Madrid vs Napoli
Prediction
In the grand scheme of this group, a draw and a loss are effectively the same result for Napoli away from home. They should take a more aggressive approach to go after Real Madrid and attack a midfield that will have almost no ball winning. Real Madrid are likely to start Valverde next to Toni Kroos, neither of which offer much ball stopping or ball winning.
Even though they're at home, Napoli have the attacking talent and midfield edge. Jude Bellingham continues to score at unbelievable rates to propel the Real Madrid attack, but Napoli's attack will threaten early and often at the other end.
Picks: Napoli to score in the first half (+140), Napoli Team Total over 1.5 (+175)
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