Red Star Belgrade vs Man City Odds, Prediction: Champions League Betting Preview
Marc Atkins/Getty. Pictured: Man City and Red Star Belgrade.
Red Star Belgrade vs Man City Odds
| Red Star Belgrade Odds | +500 |
| Man City Odds | -200 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Red Star Belgrade will be hosting the treble winning Manchester City side in the last match of the group stage of the Champions League. Red Star will be desperate to win this match as it is the only way they could potentially advance to Europa League football.
Red Star currently sit dead last in Group G with just one point and a goal difference of -7. They are coming off a 2-0 loss against Young Boys in the last round of matchups. If they win this match and Young Boys lose, then depending on goal difference they could potentially finish third and go to Europa League.
Man City have not been their normal self as of late. They have won one of their last five Premier League matches but have won every match in the group stage so far. They have already solidified their first-place finish in their group and a spot in the knockout stage.
Let’s see how this one will play out and how to bet Red Star Belgrade vs Man City.
Red Star Belgrade
Red Star Belgrade are currently top of the Serbian SuperLiga and have been dominant thus far. They have won 14 of their 17 matches in the league and sit on 43 points. They have not found that same form against the elite teams in the Champions League, having only picked up 1 point in a 2-2 draw against Young Boys.
They like to press when they are out of possession. That is how they are comfortable playing in the league and that is the only way they know how to play. Surprisingly, they are one of the highest pressing teams in the Champions League this season with a PPDA of 11.7.
This is extremely efficient when they play the significantly weaker teams in the Serbian SuperLiga, but against the top teams in Europe it leads to them being very susceptible to conceding big chances. They get played through far too easily against the top teams because they do not have the personnel to execute a press for a full 90 minutes.
That's is why in their five group stage matches so far, they have conceded at least 2.3 xG in four of the five matches. In their last match against Manchester City, they conceded 4.1 xG and only had 24% possession. I anticipate a similar possession number and I expect Red Star to try and press City throughout the match once again. The one positive on their side is that City have nothing to play for in this match so they may be more vulnerable to a counterattack.
Man City
Manchester City have struggled in the league as of late, but have dominated Group G. They have won all five of their matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding five. And while that does sound good, they have only kept one clean sheet in these five matches, which is uncharacteristic of a dominant Manchester City side.
They have been unlucky with some of the injuries they have suffered throughout the season. They have been without Kevin De Bruyne for most of the year and John Stones has had multiple injuries already. This has caused City to never truly hit their stride like they did last year as there is so much turnover within the squad at such vital positions.
Stones and De Bruyne were arguably two of their most important players during their treble winning season and without them their results have suffered.
We will see what type of lineup they will put out in this one, but I anticipate it will be majority players who have not had much game time this season. The likes of Kalvin Phillips, Kovacic, Matheus Nunes and Sergio Gomez will all get significant minutes.
While this is still a much better squad than the lineup Red Star Belgrade will be putting out, a team full of players who do not play often does not always work out how it should.
Red Star Belgrade vs Man City
Prediction
This is an interesting match to bet on because one team has everything to play for, while the other has virtually nothing to play for. I cannot bet on Red Star Belgrade to get a result in this match just because of the disparity in quality, but I do think it will be a more competitive match than most would expect.
It is going to be a cold, Wednesday night in Serbia, in a match that does not mean much to these City players. Therefore, I will be taking both teams to score as I think City will take some time to get going or may be switched off for a bit of this match.
This, as well as the fact that Red Star has nothing to lose in this match, makes me love this play of both teams to score.
Pick: Both Teams To Score – YES (-120 via DraftKings)
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