Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach Odds, Picks & Prediction For Saturday’s Bundesliga Match
Lars Baron/Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Thuram.
- Bayern Munich will look to clinch a Bundesliga title when it takes on Borussia Monchengladbach on Saturday.
- Despite Bayern's overwhelming attack, Gladbach has won two of its last three against its opponent.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down whether they can make it three of their last four below.
Bayern Munich vs. Gladbach Odds
|Bayern Munich Odds||-275|
|Over/Under||3.5 (-130 / +106)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Bayern Munich is one win from its ninth straight Bundesliga title, and it may be champions already by the time its match with Borussia Mönchengladbach kicks off on Saturday.
If RB Leipzig loses to Dortmund, Bayern beats Gladbach or both teams draw, Bayern clinches the title. Gladbach pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the Bundesliga season in January when the Foals came from 2-0 down to upset Bayern, 3-2.
Their season has been derailed since the announced departure of manager Marco Rose at the end of the season, but the Foals have improved their form in recent weeks.
Bayern’s defense has been leaking goals all season, and now it’s announced that manager Hansi Flick will be leaving at the end of the season. It’s been a year of managerial musical chairs in the German top flight, which makes this a quirky matchup between two entertaining sides.
By almost any team’s standards, winning the league would be considered an excellent season. For Bayern, that’s become the standard.
Otherwise, the Bavarians have underachieved in the domestic cup and Europe this year. A loss to PSG in the Champions League quarterfinals means they won’t retain that trophy. A loss early to a second division side in the DFB-Pokal means Bayern won’t be doing the domestic double, either.
There’s been one major issue for Bayern all year: defense.
Like many teams reliant on high pressing and high defensive lines, it has struggled in the era of COVID-19 when everyone’s legs are gone, pressing is down and match intensity has dropped considerably. Bayern went from a well-oiled machine to one that’s leaking oil at the back and through the midfield. Its attack is still probably the best in the world, though.
Bayern has been countered over and over again. Passed through easily. Allowing way more shots from direct attacks than years prior. The first leg against PSG and the loss to Gladbach are both classic examples of where everything went wrong for Bayern.
Gladbach found success winning the ball out of its mid-block and breaking forward with runners in behind. Florian Neuhaus and Jonas Hofmann combined for nine progressive passes while Denis Zakaria and Christoph Kramer broke up play in the midfield just on the edge of the penalty area. The result was a Bayern attack that fell apart on the edge of the box and created few big scoring chances.
Gladbach has been up-and-down most of the season. The club reached new highs — qualification for the Champions League knockouts for the first time in club history — while also suffering seven consecutive defeats following the announcement of Rose’s departure.
Let’s take a step back and look at what Gladbach has roughly been this season. The Foals are seventh-best in xGA, fourth-best in xGF and fourth-best in xG difference per 90. Frankfurt, Leverkusen and Wolfsburg have all run hot and are ahead of the Foals in the table, but they’re still the fifth-best team in my own power ratings.
Their defense has largely been unlucky to concede the 10th-most goals in the league, given they have the lowest xG per shot allowed and are sixth in shots per 90 allowed. Opposing teams have run well in shooting against them, a prime regression candidate for a defense going forward.
They suffered a disappointing setback against Hoffenheim two weeks ago, but the Foals have won four of their last six in the league and outplayed the opponent on xG in five of them.
The hangover from Rose’s announced departure appears to be over.
Betting Analysis & Pick
My projections show value on Gladbach in this match, as Bayern is — as usual this year — a bit inflated because of its gaudy attacking numbers.
Bayern might come out and pummel the Foals en route to another title. But Gladbach has shown it has some matchup advantages it can exploit against Bayern and will be able to generate chances.
Gladbach will look to play spoiler here, and I like its chances to keep this close. The Foals beat Bayern last fall, nearly beat them in the Bundesliga restart and did beat them again in January.
With the goal and a half as insurance, the Foals have value here given their recent attacking improvements.
Pick: Gladbach +1.5 (-110 or better)