Saturday Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Eintracht Frankfurt (April 17)
Ronny Hartmann/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Adi Hütter of Eintracht Frankfurt.
Gladbach vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Odds
|Eintracht Frankfurt Odds||+160|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+112 / -139)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds as of Friday evening via DraftKings.|
The Borussia Mönchengladbach matchup against Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday became all the more interesting when it was announced that Frankfurt manager Adi Hütter would be leaving the club at the end of the Bundesliga season to take the open job at Gladbach.
The result is that two managers will be coaching the rest of the season for teams they won’t be leading beyond the current campaign, as Gladbach manager Marco Rose has accepted the Borussia Dortmund opening. Gladbach has seen a significant downturn in form since the announcement of Rose’s departure, with the Foals dropping to eighth place in the table.
Meanwhile, Frankfurt is having its best campaign in the German top flight since 1992-93 season when it finished third. It’s unclear if the team will also see the same drop off in form now that it has been made clear Hütter is headed out the door.
Regardless, Frankfurt is running way too hot and overvalued in this match.
Anyone who follows me knows my affinity for the Foals, Rose and the myriad of underrated attacking players they feature. Gladbach had a sluggish start to the season, but was really turning it around in January with wins against Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund.
On Feb. 15, Rose announced he was taking the Dortmund job at the end of the season. Gladbach lost its next four league matches, plus was knocked out of the DFB-Pokal and Champions League.
It wound up being consecutive defeats. Some unlucky; others deserved. Their attack and defense faltered similarly and the club fell out of the top-four race.
There’s always a spot to buy low on a fading team, and this is the spot. The Foals have stabilized in recent weeks, beating league bottom feeders Schalke and Freiburg before salvaging a 2-2 draw with Hertha Berlin despite playing with 10 men most of the match. Their underlying performances started trending up a bit and striker Alassane Plea found a goal last weekend.
Goalkeeper Yann Sommer is suspended for the match, but Sommer is actually one of the league’s worst at his position by post-shot expected goals this year. He’s a major reason only two teams have underperformed their xGA more than Gladbach this season.
A part of it has been just bad luck, and only one Bundesliga attack has scored more of its shots than expected than Frankfurt. The Foals also won’t have Christoph Kramer in the midfield, but Denis Zakaria is more than capable as his replacement and might even be better.
I went against Frankfurt last week in its crucial match with Wolfsburg, and Frankfurt scored on three of its first four shots in a thrilling 4-3 victory last Saturday. It’s the continuation of a recent Frankfurt trend of tremendous xG over-performance in attack.
Frankfurt has lost the xG battle in each of its last four games. Despite the incredible form of attacker Filip Kostic, it’s unsustainable to continue making shots at the rate it has been. The club has secured 10 of a possible 12 points against RB Leipzig, Dortmund, Union Berlin and Wolfsburg, which are all top-eight opponents.
For the year, Frankfurt is just seventh in xG difference per 90 minutes, and seventh in my Bundesliga power ratings, which is still lower than Gladbach.
Frankfurt has the second-highest xG over-performance behind league-leader Bayern Munich and it’s the main reason Hütter’s side is above Dortmund. Strikers Andre Silva and Luka Jovic are having great seasons and are good players, but Frankfurt’s attack is still just eighth in shots per 90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Pick
For this line to be right, Frankfurt needs to be significantly better than Gladbach to be a Pick’em on the road, and the season-long numbers don’t reflect that position.
Gladbach is starting to turn its numbers around, while Frankfurt is at the highest point of its season in terms of results. This is a great sell-high spot on Hütter’s side, especially with the news he’s leaving town.
Frankfurt has top four all but secured now, so this is a great letdown spot.
Pick: Gladbach — Draw No Bet (-110 or better)