Everton vs. Manchester City Saturday FA Cup Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (March 20)
CLIVE BRUNSKILL/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Sergio Aguero (left) and Pep Guardiola.
- When Everton and Manchester City met last month, City ran away with the Premier League win, 3-1.
- Now the two will face off in the sixth round of the FA Cup this Saturday with the over/under set at 2.5 goals.
- Soccer betting analyst Matthew Trebby breaks down why he expects this meeting to be lower scoring.
Everton vs. Manchester City Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-350|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175 / +140)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 1:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds as of Friday afternoon and via PointsBet.|
A trip to Wembley Stadium is on the line when Everton hosts Manchester City in an FA Cup quarterfinal-round match Saturday at Goodison Park.
These teams met on Feb. 17 in Premier League action in Liverpool, with Manchester City taking all three points in a 3-1 road victory. Since then, the club has won seven of eight games and continued rolling in England’s top flight and Champions League play.
Do the Toffees stand a chance against the Cityzens? Let’s dig in.
Everton is still in the mix for a potential UCL spot via its domestic campaign. The Toffees are five points behind fourth-place Chelsea with a game in hand. No doubt, that will be their focus for the rest of the season.
In the meantime, though, why not try to win some silverware?
Everton has reached this point in the FA Cup by beating Rotherham, Sheffield Wednesday and Tottenham Hotspur, the latter of which was in a thrilling, 5-4 win that required extra time.
In the league action, Everton’s form has not been great since mid-February — it has lost four of its last seven fixtures, including its last two against Chelsea and Burnley.
There is no doubt that this matchup with Manchester City could look very similarly to the game against Chelsea, which would bode poorly for Everton. The Toffees were thoroughly dominated in that game, losing 2-0 and the expected-goal battle finishing in the Blues’ favor by a 2.9-0.3 margin, according to FBref.com.
Since drawing back-to-back matches against Manchester United and West Bromwich Albion on Dec. 12 and Dec. 15, Manchester City has won 24 of its last 25 games in all competitions.
You read that correctly. Twenty-four of 25 games were victories.
Manager Pep Guardiola’s team has conceded just 12 goals during that span, and it’s the Manchester City defense that has it in position to win the league crown for the third time in four seasons.
One of those 12 goals allowed came in that matchup against Everton back in February. The Cityzens also allowed 1.0 xG to the Toffees in that game, which merits a congratulatory pat on the back to Carlo Ancelotti’s men.
Manchester City was proven to be beatable back on March 7 when Manchester United earned a 2-0 victory against the EPL leader at Etihad Stadium. An early penalty and late goal from Luke Shaw shocked Manchester City, although the result does little to affect the league title race.
Manchester City has taken care of lower-league opposition to get to this point in FA Cup action, knocking out Birmingham City, Cheltenham and Swansea City.
Betting Analysis & Pick
In Everton’s 2-0 loss to Chelsea, the club showed little attacking initiative. Chelsea dominated possession and the game, further enhancing its chances of a Champions League berth via the Premier League route.
Everton didn’t register much in terms of chance creation in that game, and it’s going to face a similar type of team in this game. Manchester City will attempt to keep about 70-75% possession of the ball and limit the Toffees’ attack.
As if Manchester City wasn’t already a juggernaut Cup team, this incarnation of Guardiola’s squad is a perfect team for a single-elimination format. The Cityzens’ defense is incredibly stout, and the attack has the quality to break through against inferior opposition.
I was pretty surprised to see the total under 2.5 goals at +140. Although Everton has some strong attacking talent, it’s ripe to be shut out by Manchester City. I’ll take the big number and run with it.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+140)