Everton vs. Arsenal Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday, Dec. 19)

Everton vs. Arsenal Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday, Dec. 19) article feature image
Credit:

Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Everton stanouts Michael Keane, left, and Yerry Mina.

  • Arsenal has won just once in its last nine Premier League matches, while Everton is coming off back-to-back impressive victories.
  • Is this as simple as buy low, sell high?
  • Michael Leboff breaks it all down below.

Everton vs. Arsenal Odds

Everton Odds +130 [BET NOW]
Arsenal Odds +210 [BET NOW]
Draw +245 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-104) [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
TV NBC
Odds as of Thursday at 9 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Funny how quickly things can change in the Premier League.

Just over a week ago, Everton was in a bit of a crisis. A perfect start through its first four matches was firmly in its rearview mirror, thanks to rough patch that saw the club win just once in seven games. Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s team was dealing with injuries, a new formation was not working and everyone’s form seemed to be slipping.

Two impressive wins later and the Toffees’ season has promise once again.

The same thing can’t be said of Arsenal, who haven’t triumphed in a league match since a 1-0 victory over Manchester United on Nov. 1. The Gunners have four losses and two draws in their last six EPL matches, and haven’t scored more than a goal in a game since a 2-1 win over Sheffield United on Oct. 4.

Arsenal’s massive downturn in form caused the heat to be turned up on manager Mikel Arteta not too long after he was being talked about as the next big manager.

Is there still value fading Arsenal? Or is now the right time to buy low on the Gunners?

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Arsenal

After starting the season with three wins from their first four matches, the Gunners have gone 1-2-6 (W-D-L) in their last nine contests. Only Sheffield United, a team off to a historically bad start, has a worse record than Arteta’s side since the first international break.

There really are no silver linings to this story, but if you wanted to at least find a glimmer of hope, you can point to Arsenal’s modest chance creation numbers over this rough patch. According to Understat, Arsenal has generated 8.91 expected goals in its last nine matches, but only have three goals to show for it. If you’re looking for a reason to back the Gunners, you’re betting on some positive regression to accompany an uptick in form.

The truth is that Arsenal has been more uninspiring than unlucky. It has underachieved relative to its xG, but those numbers are still meager for a team of its stature. The Gunners are generating just 1.04 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, which is just 12th best in the top flight.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Part of Arsenal’s goal-scoring woes come down to form. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang finally snapped out of his drought during the midweek match against Southampton, but he’s still stuck on three goals in total. More worrying is that Aubameyang is tied for the team lead with Alexandre Lacazaette.

The Gunners’ defense has only allowed more than two goals in a game twice this season, but the overall metrics aren’t that impressive as 14th in the league with a 1.26 npxGA per match.

It’s weird to see Arsenal in 15th place, but it has played like a below-average team for the majority of this season.

Everton

Two sparkling wins — both clean sheets — over Chelsea and Leicester City have completely changed the narrative at Goodison Park. With the teams around it slipping, Everton once again look like a club that could mount a run towards the top six on the table.

The Toffees have looked like a reinvigorated bunch since late in the first half in their 1-1 draw against Burnley three games ago. That might sound like an arbitrary time to point to, but it coincided with Fabian Delph being forced off with an injury that led to Everton reverting back to a 4-3-3 formation after an uninspiring stretch playing with five in the back.

Nothing against Delph, although he was struggling with his role, but it was clear Everton was a much different team playing out of a 4-3-3 approach.

Since Ancelotti switched the Toffees back to their preferred formation, they have scored five goals and allowed none.

There are injury concerns for Everton,  as James Rodriguez and Seamus Coleman are doubtful. Teammates Lucas Digne and Allan will miss the game.

The Toffees didn’t miss a beat without James, Coleman and Digne against Chelsea and Leicester City, but Allan played a key role in both matches. His absence changes the dynamic of the Everton midfield, as the Brazilian is its best ball hound on the pitch.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

There’s going to come a time to buy low on Arsenal, but I don’t think we’ve reached that point yet. The price just isn’t high enough to take a chance on the Gunners to find their form.

Everton are just a few games removed from a cold spell itself, but its issues were driven by personnel and tactics rather than just poor play. And while the injuries are still a problem, the Toffees seem a settled squad heading into the match with a +0.81 xGD per game over their current three-game unbeaten run.

Defensively, I think Everton’s back four should stand up to Arsenal’s attack, and I also think Richarlison, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and either James or Gylfi Sigurdsson will cause some havoc for an Arsenal team that will be without Gabriel, Thomas Partey and Granit Xhaka up the middle.

I think Everton are a fine bet at +125 or better.

The Bet: Everton +130

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