Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions for Leicester City vs. Southampton (Saturday, Jan. 16)
Plumb Images/Leicester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Leicester City star Jamie Vardy, right, and Newcastle United defender DeAndre Yedlin.
- Leicester City hosts Southampton on Saturday Premier League action at King Power Stadium.
- Can the Foxes keep things rolling along in this intriguing affair?
- Dillon Essma takes a look at the match and gives his top play below.
Leicester City vs. Southampton Odds
|Leicester City Odds||-118 [BET NOW]|
|Southampton Odds||+310 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+280 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110/-113) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
Leicester City welcomes Southampton to the King Power Stadium on Saturday for a key Premier League match,
Both clubs have had some time off, albeit the Saints didn’t have an FA Cup fixture. We are going to see two of the better teams in England’s top division, so this should be an exciting meeting.
Let’s take a look at this showdown and see what’s in store.
This will be the Foxes’ first league game since their 2-1 win over Newcastle United at the start of the new year. Manager Brendan Rodgers and his players are currently in fourth place on the table, sitting on 32 points.
Frankly, I have been impressed with how the Foxes have performed. They have definitely gotten fortunate from the spot, but to do this without three of your best five players for large chunks of time is an impressive feat.
The advanced metrics are not kind to Leicester City, where it ranks 11th in the in the league with a minus-2.02 Non-Penalty Expected Goals Differential. The main reason for this is their dependency on penalties, as the Foxes have a 7.61 differential between expected goals and NPxG this campaign.
That is the largest gap by a whole three goals across the entire league.
Leicester City’s form has obviously been quite strong as of late, losing just once in their last six outings.
However, this team has been tough for me to get a read on. The Foxes will deliver an ultra-impressive performance like their 3-0 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion, but follow it up with the 2-0 shutout loss to Everton.
Most of Leicester’s games the last month have had excitement, which is more I can say for most of the league’s fixtures. The side should be well rested, and confident following their 4-0 win over Stoke City in the FA Cup in their last tilt.
The Saints have been solid as well in the first half of the season, which has led them to seventh place in the standings from their 27 points.
Having to survive a few games without Danny Ings actually wasn’t too bad for Southampton either. The Saints will come into this match even more rested than Leicester City, due to them not having an FA Cup fixture to play. And that rest was needed for a side that scored just two goals over its last five games.
The advanced metrics would also call for Southampton to come back to earth a bit, which is similar to Leicester City. Its NPxGD ranks 13th, which is relative to its seventh-place position.
The Saints’ 0.94 NPxG/game is dismal, which just highlights how they continue to depend on Ings and a solid defense (8th in NPxGA/game at 1.11).
Like I mentioned previously, Southampton’s previous five matches have been like watching paint dry. Four total goals scored during that stretch, with the Saints only converting in two of the games.
The most xG generated was in their 1-0 win over Liverpool, which finished with them hold a 0.50xG to 1.37 margin. The most xG they generated themselves was 1.11 in the 1-1 draw against Arsenal.
Now, this is very likely due to fixture congestion and tired legs. Maybe the 11 days off will do the Saints good, and they will come out firing. I’m skeptical, but they should be rested and ready to go.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Some may cringe at this pick, as both Leicester City and Southampton have a reputation of having talented attacks.
However, their combined NPxG this season comes out to 2.03/game. Not to mention, the Saints’ tactical shift the last five games prior to the break coming into play.
If we can avoid a penalty, this match should fall under the total.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-109)
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