English Premier League Betting Odds & Pick: West Ham United vs. Burnley (Saturday, Jan. 16)

English Premier League Betting Odds & Pick: West Ham United vs. Burnley (Saturday, Jan. 16) article feature image
Credit:

James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Manager David Moyes of West Ham United.

  • West Ham United hosts Burnley in an interesting Premier League match Saturday at London Stadium.
  • Can the Hammers bag all three points against the fiesty Clarets?
  • Jeremy Pond isn't so sure and gives his top plays below.

West Ham vs. Burnley Odds

West Ham Odds -122 [BET NOW]
Burnley Odds +370 [BET NOW]
Draw +250 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+106/-132) [BET NOW]
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Saturday at 8 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Things could get pretty intense Saturday at London Stadium when West Ham United hosts Burnley in a Premier League showdown.

Both sides have been in relatively decent form as of late, which really makes this an intriguing fixture on a busy weekend in England’s top flight.

The Hammers, unbeaten in their last four games, are coming off two wins on the bounce. Most recently, West Ham earned a 1-0 victory over fifth-division Stockport County on Monday in the third round of the FA Cup.

On the other side, the Clarets have gotten things pointed in the right direction, with just two losses in their last eight contests. That string of tilts has allowed Burnley to get away from the relegation zone, with the focus now on making sure it doesn’t make a return visit to the league cellar.

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West Ham

Manager David Moyes has the Hammers moving in the right direction, which is up the league table. Now, it’s just matter of whether or not the gaffer’s lads can continue that recent surge during the second half of their campaign.

West Ham has surged into 10th place, sitting in a three-way tie with Chelsea and Aston Villa on 26 points. The Villans hold the goal-differential tiebreaker over both, with the Blues also well ahead of the Hammers.

Tomáš Souček leads the extremely balanced West Ham offensive attack, but has scored just five of the club’s 24 goals across 17 games.

Combing over West Ham’s overall statistics, they can be defined by one word. That would be flat. The Hammers sit on 21.6 expected goals and 21.5 expected goals against, generating a pretty much even +0.1 xGDiff and +0.00 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Those figures are kind of apropos for an outfit sitting smack dab in the middle of the 20-team league.

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Burnley

After struggling mightily out of the gate, the Clarets have righted their ship and started sailing away from trouble.

Burnley has won four of its last seven contests, with just two losses and a draw  tacked on along the way. Victories against a resurgent Arsenal side and Wolves prove this team can hang (and defeat) most teams on a weekly basis.

The Clarets had to be disappointed following their 1-0 setback against league-leader Manchester United on Tuesday at Turf Moor, where they wound up losing the expected-goals battle by a 1.2 xG-0.8 xG margin.

When comparing advanced metrics with West Ham, Burnley trails its opponent in all four highlighted categories.

The Clarets are on 14.0 expected goals and an even worse 22.6 expected goals against, resulting in a brutal -8.6 xGDiff and -0.54 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Suffice it to say, Burnley is one of the worst statistical teams across the board.

The Clarets find themselves second to last in xGDiff and xGDiff/90, with drop-zone resident West Bromwich Albion at the bottom in both rankings.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

This really should be one of the better matches on the weekend card, despite the fact it doesn’t feature any marquee names. You just have two teams that play hard going at it in what I believe will be a very even contest.

That said, I am taking a swing at this game ending in a draw and back it at the ripe price of +245 on the line. I just can’t see either getting too risky moving forward, which should thwart any counter-attacking opportunities.

I will also back the total to stay under the number. Burnley and West Ham have combined to play seven consecutive matches across all competitions that have finished with two goals or less, which has me feeling confident.

Bottom line: This should be a low-scoring, hard-fought affair in East London.

Picks: Draw (+245) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-141)

[Bet the West Ham-Burnley match now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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