Saturday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wolves vs. Sheffield United (April 17)
Laurence Griffiths/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Wolverhampton Wanderers goalkeeper Rui Patricio.
Wolves vs. Sheffield United Odds
|Sheffield United Odds||+500|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+133 / -167)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 3:15 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds as of Friday afternoon via DraftKings|
The last of the three Premier League matches Saturday is another one of those late-season affairs that doesn’t matter very much in terms of the table.
Wolves are currently in 12th place with 38 points — 12 points above 18th-place Fulham — with seven matches remaining, so they’re not in danger of relegation.
On the other hand, Sheffield United is all but officially demoted. The Blades sit in last place with 14 points, 10 fewer than any other team in the league.
Here’s a closer look at these two clubs, followed by a pick.
Wolves are coming off a dramatic 1-0 victory over Fulham last Friday, thanks to Adama Traoré’s goal in the 92nd minute. It was Traoré’s long-awaited first goal of the season.
However, this wasn’t an impressive performance by Wolverhampton. Fulham outshot the club by a 14-7 margin, and held a 0.9-0.4 edge in expected goals, according to FBRef.
What’s more troubling is the fact Wolves were winless in their previous five matches , which included two draws and three losses. A bright some came against fourth-place West Ham United, where they outshot their opponents by a 20-9 stat line. However, they suffered a 3-2 loss to the Hammers in a game that was immediately preceding the Fulham game.
In terms of the underlying numbers, Wolves are about where they should be. Their xG differential on the season is -3.1, which ranks 11th in the league.
Wolverhampton’s biggest problem this season has been scoring. The club has just 31 goals in 31 matches, with only four teams have scoring fewer times. Wolves have desperately missed Raul Jimenez, who scored 17 goals for them last season, but has been out since late November due to a skull fracture.
The Blades are one of the four teams that have scored fewer goals than Wolves, and it’s a lot fewer. They have found the back of the net just 17 times in 31 matches, which is seven fewer than any other team in the league.
Sheffield United also has a league-low four wins and just two draws. That means the club has lost 25 of its 31 matches so far.
The Blades’ current losing streak stands at five games if you include their 2-0 FA Cup quarterfinal defeat to Chelsea on March 21. Sheffield United’s most recent match was a 3-0 loss at home to Arsenal last Sunday, in which it was were outshot, 14-7, and fell well short in terms of xG by 2.2 to 0.5 margin.
This will be little solace to Sheffield United’s supporters, but it’s actually not the worst team in the league, according to the underlying numbers. The Blades only have the second-worst xGDiff in the league at -25.0, putting them above West Bromwich Albion (-27.1 xGDiff) in the category.
Betting Analysis & Picks
These teams met in their very first match of the season, way back on Sept. 14. Wolves earned a 2-0 victory, with one of the goals being scored by Jimenez. They outshot Sheffield United, 11-9, and topped held a 1.1-0.6 xG advantage.
Sheffield United has scored just one goal in its past five matches, and two in its past nine games. I’d bet that it doesn’t score the second time around against Wolves either.
However, I’d also make a smaller play on this winding up a scoreless draw. Wolves are still missing Jimenez, and now they are without Pedro Neto and Ruben Neves. Neto suffered a season-ending knee injury against Fulham, and Neves has tested positive for COVID-19.
Neto and Neves were Wolves’ leading scorers this season, with five goals apiece, and Neto also led the team with six assists.
This was already a matchup featuring two of the five lowest-scoring teams in the league, even before you take into account all the missing players.
Picks: Sheffield United — Team Total Under 0.5 Goals (-106) | Correct scoreline — 0-0 (+700)