Friday Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bet Roma Over Lazio in Rome Derby (Jan. 15)
MB Media/Getty Images. Pictured: Henrik Mkhitaryan.
- Roma and Lazio are set to meet in the Rome Derby on Saturday, with the teams headed in different directions.
- The Giallorossi, who are the superior side, are playing well heading into the match.
- Matthew Trebby explains why Roma is the smart bet in this road fixture while getting plus odds below.
Lazio vs. Roma Odds
|Lazio Odds||+188 [BET NOW]|
|Roma Odds||+135 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+255 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-165 / +132) [BET NOW]|
|Day | Time||Friday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
One of the world’s most beautiful cities hosts one of soccer’s most intense rivalries.
While there won’t be any fans in attendance at Rome’s Stadio Olimpico on Friday evening, there will be no love lost between the Eternal City’s two clubs: Lazio and Roma.
Roma are in the midst of a strong season that sees them fighting near the top of the table, while Lazio have failed to capitalize thus far on a campaign that saw them as Juventus’ biggest rivals for the Serie A title last season.
With two teams headed in different directions, let’s find the value:
Since Serie A restarted last season in late June, Lazio have been a far cry from where they were in late February when COVID-19 brought play in Italy to a halt.
Lazio had won 16 of 18 games in Serie A, with two draws before the break, and were neck and neck with Juventus, which had won the previous eight league titles.
They finished the season with just 16 points in the final 12 games and finished fourth, behind Juve, Inter Milan and Atalanta.
The Biancocelesti are yet to right the ship this season. They enter this derby eighth in the Serie A table through 17 games, having won just three of their last seven games.
Lazio have won their last two, though, against 12th-placed Fiorentina and Parma, who are in 19th.
Lazio benefitted last season from 15 goals from the penalty spot and had a lot of good fortune. While striker Ciro Immobile has eight goals and Felipe Caicedo is averaging one every 109.5 minutes, the rest of the attack is struggling and the defense has given up 25 goals in 17 games, which is tied for the ninth fewest in Serie A.
Roma enter this game third in Serie A, five points behind leaders AC Milan. The Giallorossi also rank toward the top of the Italian top flight in most underlying categories.
Roma are tied for the third-most goals scored this season with 37 through 17 matches, and they rank first in non-penalty expected goals. Their 23 goals allowed are the sixth fewest, and their 16.09 non-penalty expected goals against is fifth. Their 20.30 non-penalty expected goal difference trails Napoli for the top spot in Serie A by just 0.13.
And they’re playing well.
Manager Paulo Fonseca’s side is 5-1-1 in its last seven games, with the only blemishes being a 4-1 loss to Atalanta back on Dec. 20 and a 2-2 draw on Sunday with Inter.
Aside from that, against inferior opposition, the Giallorossi are taking care of business. In those five wins from their last seven, they scored at least three goals four times and registered more than 2.40 xG four times, as well.
The unlikely star of the show: Henrik Mkhitaryan. The former Borussia Dortmund, Manchester United and Arsenal winger has been one of the best players in Serie A this season, registering eight goals and eight assists through the first 17 games of the season.
Striker Edin Dzeko has seven goals and Italian international Lorenzo Pellgrini has three goals and three assists, while Gonzalo Villar has established himself as a strong force in center midfield.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Against the other five teams that currently make up the top six in Serie A, Roma has three points from five games, drawing Juventus, Milan and Inter.
Against the rest of the league, Roma has 10 wins and two draws. The Giallorossi are taking care of business against teams that they should beat.
While Lazio are still alive in the Champions League and coming off a sensational season, they rate well below the big dogs in Serie A. That has been the case since play restarted this summer.
Roma is clearly the better team here and this isn’t really an away fixture, since there’s no travel involved and it’s without fans. I’ll happily take them here with plus odds.
Pick: Roma ML +135