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Serie A Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Lazio & Roma

Serie A Updated Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Lazio & Roma article feature image
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Sportinfoto/vi/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Jose Mourinho of Roma.

Serie A is back!

On the heels of its summer respite, the Italian top flight returns for its opening week of action. Powerhouse AC Milan, last season’s title winner, begin its campaign against Udinese, while Juventus faces Sassuolo in arguably the marquee match of the first weekend.

So, where should bettors look this weekend for their bets? Without further delay, here are my three best bets across the 10-match slate.

Serie A Best Bets

Lecce vs. Inter Milan

Lecce Odds +850
Inter Odds -350
Draw +460
Over/Under 2.5 (-166 / +136)
Day | Time Saturday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Lecce might be the home team, but I expect it’s in for a long evening come.

Across the last two seasons, Inter has absolutely dominated newly promoted teams in Italy. In 12 such matches, the Nerazurri are 11-0-1 (W-L-D) in those fixtures. Just last season, it was 6-0-0 (W-L-D) in those matches and won all of them by at least 1.4 expected goals, per fbref.com.

In reality, manager Simone Inzaghi’s side covered a 1.5-goal spread in nine of those 11 victories. All told, the 2020-21 Scudetto winners have generated 2.73 xG per 90 minutes in those 12 games and 3.15 xG/90 minutes in the six matches last season.

With a potentially even better attack taking center stage this season, I expect Inter will open on a strong note and roll Lecce.

By The Numbers

  • 11 — Wins by Inter Milan in last 12 matches against newly promoted sides.
  • 5 — Number of times Inter covered 1.5-goal spread against newly-promoted sides last season.

Hennion’s Pick: Inter Milan -1.5 (-115)

Lazio vs. Bologna

Lazio -180
Bologna Odds +460
Draw +330
Over/Under 2.5 (-160 / +130)
Day | Time Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Although it drastically over-performed its underlying metrics, Lazio (generally) cleaned up at home against the bottom half of the table last season.

In 10 such fixtures, manager Maurizio Sarri’s side finished 7-0-3 (W-L-D), but won eight matches by at least 0.5 xG in the process. It also generated 2.07 xG per 90 minutes in those contests while conceding less than one xG in all but four fixtures.

On the flip side, Bologna has struggled to build defensive consistency away from home. Over the last two seasons, it combined to allow almost 1.7 xG per 90 minutes and conceded the seventh-most road xG last season in Serie A, per fbref.com.

Additionally, Lazio wrecked Bologna in a 3-0 shutout (2.6-0.7 edge in xG) in last season’s meeting at the Stadio Olimpico. Bologna also struggled last season against top sides, conceding 2.2 xG/90 minutes in road fixtures against the top-seven teams in the Italian top flight.

Based on those metrics, I’ll back Lazio with push protection against a clearly inferior side.

By The Numbers

  • 6 — Number of xG losses by Bologna last season against top-seven clubs.
  • 3 — Consecutive home matches won by Lazio against Bologna.

Hennion’s Pick: Lazio -1 (-120)

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Salernitana vs. Roma

Salernitana Odds +550
Roma Odds -220
Draw +350
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +108)
Day | Time Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

I’m not going to overthink this fixture and neither should you.

Last season, Salernitana played miserably against the league’s best. In 12 matches against the top six, it earned a result exactly once and picked up all three points a total of zero times. Those games also saw Salernitana concede 2.3 xG per 90 minutes and at least two goals in all but one game.

On the flip side, manager Jose Mourinho’s outfit hammered the bottom five last season. In 10 eligible matches, La Lupa allowed 0.75 xG per 90 minutes and only 0.9 combined xG in two matches against Salernitana.

Although Roma only won seven of those 10 matches, it took the match on xG in all 10 and covered a one-goal spread on xG in nine of 10 matches, per fbref.com.

Positive offensive regression could be on the way based on Roma’s performance in those matches, as it scored 17 goals on 23 expected goals.

By The Numbers

  • +3.54 — The xGDiff for Roma against Salernitana last season.
  • 50 — Percent of Salernitana matches against top-six clubs in which it conceded at least two expected goals.

Hennion’s Pick: Roma -1 (-125)

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