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Southampton vs. Everton Betting Preview: Back This Trend in Saturday’s Match

Southampton vs. Everton Betting Preview: Back This Trend in Saturday’s Match article feature image
Credit:

Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Dominic Calvert-Lewin of Everton.

Southampton vs. Everton Odds

Southampton Odds +115
Everton Odds +230
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -120)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Everton is seeking its first road win against a Southampton side that has lost two in a row in the recent disjointed days of the Premier League season.

Saturday’s visitors may be the ones who have benefited more from the recent schedule, which has limited  each side to only two games in the the past four weeks. Everton finally got its first win of the season two weeks ago when Neal Maupay scored his first goal for the club in a 1-0 home win against West Ham.

But perhaps the Saints will have welcomed the time to regroup after a pair of setbacks followed a promising start to the season. The South Coasters have lost 1-0 away to both the Wolverhampton Wanderers and Aston Villa in their past two, squandering the momentum gained from a home win over Chelsea four weekends ago.

These teams split the set last season as both teams won at home.

Southampton

Saints fans can be forgiven for feeling a sense of déjà vu.

It was only April when a home win over Arsenal appeared to set up Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men for a chance at a strong finish to the 2021-2022 campaign.

Instead, Southampton only took a point from its final six games and slid way down to 15th in the table at season’s end — only a place above an Everton side that battled relegation all year.

There’s still time to avoid an extended slide this time around after that Chelsea victory that was now nearly a month ago.

It would help to tighten things at the back, where the Saints have not yet kept a clean sheet this campaign.

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Everton

It appears the Toffees will be without striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who hasn’t played all this season after suffering a freak knee injury prior to the opening weekend.

However, goalkeeper Jordan Pickford is set to return after missing only one game with a leg injury.

Everton has underperformed its attacking xG by 2.7 goals and overperformed its defending xG by 5.5 goals. Some of that is because of the turnover in attacking personnel and also Pickford’s exceptional form.

Even so, you’d expect a regression sooner or later. Teams have combined for 19.2 xG, but have only scored 11 goals in Everton’s seven league fixtures.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The Saints’ defensive struggles are a continuation of much of the previous season.

Meanwhile, the Toffees are much better defensively, but have yet to score more than once as they deal with Calvert-Lewin’s absence and — more pointedly — the loss of Richarlison to Tottenham Hotspur.

In a game where there’s not much else jumping off the board, playing Everton to score exactly once at +145 odds and an implied 40.8% probability is a good value.

Yes, it’s a little early to play trends, but it’s a bet that has hit on 10 of 14 occasions between the Toffees’ own scoring record and that of the Saints’ opponents.

The Pick: Everton to score one goal exact (+145)

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